FiveThirtyEight Politics What Americans Expect From Trump's Second Term
Nov 18, 2024
In this discussion, Jeffrey Skelly, a senior elections analyst, and Mary Radcliffe, a senior researcher, delve into expectations for a potential second Trump term. They analyze the implications of cabinet picks, like the controversial nomination of Matt Gaetz, and discuss how sexual assault allegations impact market perceptions. The duo also explores American consumer sentiment shifts post-election and questions surrounding the likelihood of electing a female president, adding a thought-provoking layer to the political landscape.
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Prediction Market Strategy
- When playing prediction markets, consider the market's future movement, not just the final outcome.
- News and changing circumstances significantly impact contract values.
Gaetz Confirmation
- Matt Gaetz's confirmation as Attorney General depends on whether it reaches a Senate floor vote.
- A withdrawal is more likely than rejection on the floor, given historical trends and Republican loyalty to Trump.
Republican Opposition to Trump
- Republicans have a limited history of opposing Trump's nominees.
- Trump's desire for a loyal Attorney General might override other concerns.