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FiveThirtyEight Politics

Voters Lose Their Appetite For Incumbents

Nov 25, 2024
Dive into a discussion about how partisanship is reshaping economic sentiment, revealing grimmer realities for Democrats. Explore the wild world of political betting markets, speculating on cabinet appointments and Trump’s potential pardons. Discover a trend of increasing voter dissatisfaction that could signal the end of the incumbent advantage in 2024, paralleling historical political shifts. It's a blend of intriguing insights wrapped in a Thanksgiving spirit, reflecting on accountability and the evolving political landscape.
42:14

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Quick takeaways

  • Partisan sentiment significantly distorts economic perceptions, with Republicans more reactive to political shifts than independents or Democrats.
  • The rise of anti-incumbent sentiment, fueled by economic instability post-COVID-19, may undermine the traditional advantages of incumbency in elections.

Deep dives

Changing Consumer Sentiment Post-Election

Consumer sentiment in the U.S. has shifted significantly following the recent election, particularly among partisan groups. A YouGov poll revealed a notable decline in the percentage of Republicans who feel worse off financially than a year ago, dropping from 63% before the election to 48% afterward. This indicates that political events can reshape perceptions of one's financial situation, demonstrating that party affiliation plays a crucial role in how people evaluate both their past and current economic statuses. Interestingly, independents and Democrats showed little change, suggesting that this partisan sentiment may not reflect broader economic realities.

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