FiveThirtyEight Politics
A 'Realignment' Among Latino Voters
Nov 14, 2024
Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, sheds light on the surprising shift of Latino voters to the right in recent elections. He dives into key issues like the economy and immigration that are driving this change. Odio discusses Trump’s appeal and how Latino voters have become a powerful swing group. The conversation highlights the complexities of their voting behavior and the impact of both political parties’ actions, particularly regarding immigration and border security.
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Quick takeaways
- Latino voters demonstrated a significant rightward shift in recent elections, influenced by economic concerns and perceptions of party effectiveness.
- The evolving stance on immigration within Latino communities indicates a complex relationship with political leadership, reflecting a need for nuanced strategies by both parties.
Deep dives
Shifts in Latino Voting Patterns
Latino voters exhibited a significant shift in support towards Trump in the recent election, with estimates indicating an increase in his vote share among this demographic by up to 14 points compared to the previous cycle. Geographic data supports this change, showing that 86 majority-Hispanic counties were 13 points more Republican than in 2020. Notably, counties in South Florida and the Rio Grande Valley experienced drastic swings, with some areas, such as Miami-Dade, showing a 40-point shift. This trend points toward a potential realignment in Latino voting behavior, challenging previously held assumptions about their political affiliations.
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