Ruth Egelnik, polling editor at the New York Times, and Mary Radcliffe, senior researcher at FiveThirtyEight, bring their expertise to a playful discussion about the 2024 political landscape. They explore humorous political superlatives, drawing amusing parallels with high school experiences. The duo delves into polling trends, highlighting shifting voter dynamics, especially among Latino voters. They also examine the complexities of voter priorities on issues such as abortion and immigration, all while navigating the unpredictable nature of upcoming elections.
The podcast highlights a significant shift in global voter engagement, with 4 billion participants in elections, marking a rise in democratic participation.
Through a lighthearted awards ceremony, the hosts reflect on political dynamics, awarding Joe Biden 'Most Stubborn' due to his perceived detachment from public concerns.
Deep dives
Measuring a Year: Significant Political Trends
The podcast discusses various methods of measuring the past year in politics, emphasizing different perspectives based on profession or interest. For economists, inflation statistics serve as a critical indicator, with prices rising by 2.7% over the year. In contrast, political analysts focus on broader trends, noting that a record 4 billion people participated in elections globally, reflecting increased voter engagement. Additionally, the podcast highlights how all current governing parties in developed nations have lost vote share for the first time in over a century, indicating a significant shift in political dynamics.
Superlatives as Political Insights
Throughout the episode, the hosts engage in a lighthearted but insightful awards ceremony, granting superlatives that invoke deeper discussions about political players and issues. They award Joe Biden the title of 'Most Stubborn' for his delayed response to public sentiments regarding his age and performance perceptions. This segment allows for an exploration of whether Biden's decisions might impact electoral outcomes, particularly should he choose not to run again. It also opens up debates about the role of both polling and primary processes, evaluating how they affect party dynamics and strategies moving forward.
Creative Approaches to Polling
A segment focused on creativity in polling recognizes groundbreaking methodologies, such as the Pew Research Center's playful approach of asking respondents if they possessed a nuclear submarine license. This tactic aims to showcase the reliability and limitations of non-probability polls, particularly while examining key demographic subsets. Additionally, the podcast weighs in on the significance of polling voters about pet ownership in relation to their political alignments. Recognizing these innovative polling methods provides insights into the challenges of capturing accurate public sentiment in contemporary political landscapes.
Key Political Issues and Voter Sentiments
The episode delves into crucial topics shaping the political environment, with a particular emphasis on immigration as a critical issue beyond the economy. The conversation examines how political violence has become a significant trend, noting alarming events such as assassination attempts on presidential nominees. In discussing abortion rights following the Dobbs decision, the hosts highlight the disconnect between elite narratives and voter priorities, challenging assumptions about what issues truly mobilize the electorate. This culminates in a recognition of varying perceptions of political parties and the need for candidates to resonate authentically with voters to succeed in upcoming elections.
How do you measure a year? In votes cast? Money spent? Or in “seasons of love”? On this end-of-2024 installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew tries to find out by making a yearbook and assigning superlatives.