Mary Radcliffe, a senior researcher, and Jeffrey Skelly, a senior elections analyst, dive into President Biden's unexpected pardon of his son, Hunter. They analyze the historical context and public reaction to this controversial move. The conversation shifts to the 2026 midterm elections, where challenges await both Democrats and Republicans. They discuss key state dynamics, the significance of incumbents, and the perpetual cycle of political engagement as the nation gears up for the next electoral showdown.
President Biden's unprecedented pardon of Hunter Biden raises ethical questions about self-serving pardons and presidential credibility.
The dynamics of the 2026 midterm elections suggest a potentially favorable landscape for Democrats to reclaim the House of Representatives.
Deep dives
President Biden's Pardon of Hunter Biden
President Biden granted a sweeping pardon to his son, Hunter Biden, for offenses potentially spanning a ten-year period. This decision marks a significant shift from previous statements where Biden had committed not to use his pardoning power for familial benefit, particularly after Hunter's gun charges earlier in the year. The reaction from Republican figures has been stark, accusing Biden of dishonesty and corruption, with fears that this pardon could undermine the president's credibility. The case raises questions about the implications of presidential pardons when they appear self-serving and the potential public backlash that may follow.
Historical Context of Presidential Pardons
The discussion includes a historical analysis of presidential pardons, noting that while pardoning family members isn't new, the breadth of Hunter Biden's pardon is unprecedented. Past presidents have pardoned relatives, such as Bill Clinton with his half-brother and Donald Trump with his son-in-law's father, but Biden’s pardon is distinctive due to its encompassing nature. The conversation also draws parallels to infamous pardons like Gerald Ford's of Richard Nixon, suggesting that this instance may not be entirely unique in history, yet still raises ethical concerns associated with the president's discretion in pardoning. Ultimately, the inconsistent application of the pardon power across presidencies feeds into ongoing debates about political accountability.
Implications for Future Pardons and Political Norms
Concerns arise that Biden's pardon could set a precedent for future self-serving pardons, particularly if Trump were to return to office and wield the pardoning power again. The potential for the normalization of politically motivated pardons complicates the Democratic stance against such actions and could diminish their ability to critique Republicans. This apprehension is heightened by the possibility of pardons being granted for politically charged issues that have not yet been thoroughly investigated. The discussion emphasizes that while Biden's actions may evoke immediate political repercussions, they may also alter the frameworks within which presidential power is understood moving forward.
Analysis of the 2026 Midterms
The outlook for the 2026 midterm elections indicates that Democrats might be in a favorable position to reclaim the House of Representatives, given the current balance of seats. With Republicans holding a slight majority, the Democrats only need to flip three seats to regain control, which seems plausible considering the political dynamics discussed. Historical trends suggest that the president's party typically loses seats during midterm elections, and with Trump's potential unpopularity, conditions may align favorably for Democratic candidates. Furthermore, the conversation points to specific states and districts where Democrats could have a competitive edge, building their case for optimism.
Galen is out today, so 538’s Nathaniel Rakich steps in to guide the crew through the numbers. They unpack President Joe Biden’s surprise decision to pardon his son Hunter, exploring the historical context for such a move and how it might resonate with the American public.
They also turn their attention to the 2026 midterm elections, analyzing the prospects for both the House and Senate. They discuss whether Republicans can hang on to their trifecta, and examine the challenges Democrats face in their efforts to reclaim control of Congress.