FiveThirtyEight Politics

Elliot Morris, Director of Data Analytics, and Ruth Agelnik, Polling editor at the New York Times, dive into the fascinating disconnect between Trump’s personal unpopularity and the surprising popularity of his policies on DEI and immigration. They dissect how public opinion has shifted since 2017, revealing the nuances in how polling questions can shape responses. With insights on the complexities of voter sentiment, they explore how Trump's strategies may adapt based on these evolving public attitudes.

Rachael Bade, Senior Washington correspondent at Politico and contributing political correspondent at ABC News, dives deep into the complex landscape of Congress after Trump's second term kick-off. She examines the immediate impact of Trump's executive orders and the mixed reactions to his pardons related to the January 6th riots. The discussion highlights the legislative challenges his agenda faces, particularly regarding border security and tax reform, while revealing the intricate political maneuvers within both parties.

In this insightful discussion, guests Nathaniel Rakich and Jeffrey Skelly, both senior elections analysts, along with Mary Radcliffe, a senior researcher, dive into President Trump’s second inaugural address. They analyze the significance of his aggressive executive orders, contrasting them with pressing public concerns like inflation. The team also tackles the complexities of immigration policies, public sentiment on energy tariffs, and the intricate dynamics of diversity initiatives in a polarized climate, all while navigating changing perceptions in a bipartisan landscape.

Nathaniel Rakich, a Senior elections analyst, and Mary Radcliffe, a Senior researcher, dive into the remarkable highs and lows of Joe Biden’s presidency. They discuss the impactful vaccine rollout and the Inflation Reduction Act, contrasted with challenges like inflation and public opinion. The conversation touches on the current wildfires in California and their political ramifications. With humorous anecdotes about Biden's quirks, they reflect on how presidencies are remembered and the evolving perceptions of Biden's legacy.

Monica Potts, Senior politics reporter, and Jeffrey Skelly, Senior elections analyst, dive into the intriguing ramifications of Donald Trump's controversial comments about Greenland and the Panama Canal. They discuss whether Trump's statements should be taken literally or seriously, reflecting on his unpredictable political motivations. The conversation also touches on the geopolitical implications for Greenland and Denmark and explores Jimmy Carter's evolving legacy in light of contemporary political dynamics.

Dive into the fascinating world of political likability and the infamous 'beer question' that shaped elections. Explore how George W. Bush’s appeal to voters turned into a catchy trope reflecting candidate relatability. Discover how Al Gore's missed opportunities in the 2000 election highlight the importance of personal branding over political credentials. The conversation also delves into the evolution of political imagery, showcasing how media influences public perception and the critical role charisma plays in voter decision-making.

What does American politics look like in 2025? Insightful discussions reveal Trump’s potential challenges as he navigates a divided Congress and his first 100 days. Public sentiment around his return is explored, particularly regarding critical issues like the economy and immigration. The political landscape shifts as key House special elections loom, along with changing dynamics in Republican strongholds like Virginia and New Jersey. The impact of suburban voter trends and Democratic strategies leading into 2026 adds further intrigue.

Christina Walbrecht, a political scientist from the University of Notre Dame and author specializing in women's suffrage, dives into the iconic 'soccer mom' phenomenon. She discusses the profound influence of women voters during the 1996 election, highlighting the complexities behind their motivations. Walbrecht also critiques oversimplified narratives about suburban women, emphasizing how demographic shifts have transformed their political landscape. The conversation touches on the legacy of the 'Year of the Woman' and how changing dynamics continue to shape women's political engagement today.

James Carville, Bill Clinton's chief strategist during the 1992 campaign, and Lynn Vavrik, UCLA political science expert, dive into the impact of the slogan 'It's the economy, stupid.' They explore how economic issues swayed voter preferences, contrasting 1992 with today's landscape of rising prices and job growth. The duo reflects on the cultural legacy of the phrase and its significance in electoral success. They also tackle shifting voter dynamics, questioning the role of economy amid increasing partisanship as we approach the 2024 elections.

What would symbolize 2024 in politics? A quirky debate unfolds as hosts curate a time capsule filled with a Dean Phillips bumper sticker and Trump’s 16-page indictment. The impending government shutdown prompts a lively discussion on political dynamics and spending negotiations. Personal anecdotes about grocery inflation add a relatable touch. Throughout, humor intermingles with reflections on the evolving political landscape and key moments shaping the year.