FiveThirtyEight Politics

The hosts dive into President Trump's historic State of the Union address, highlighting its theatrical elements and political implications. They dissect the Democratic response from a newly elected senator, focusing on her moderate stance amid a divided landscape. The discussion also reflects on the challenges of crafting effective responses to such speeches, while examining public sentiment toward Trump's rapid policy changes and the disconnect with Congress. Insights on the evolving political narrative make for a lively, late-night conversation.

Rachael Bade, a Senior Washington correspondent at Politico, and Jeffrey Skelley, an expert in election analysis, delve into the current dynamics of Congress amid President Trump's second term. They discuss the shifting attitudes toward gender norms within the Republican Party, particularly among women, showcasing the tension between traditional and progressive values. The episode also addresses looming budget negotiations, the implications of U.S.-Ukraine relations, and the strategies Trump might use in his upcoming congressional address.

Harry Enten, CNN's senior data reporter and former FiveThirtyEight member, dives into the recent spike in Americans' fear of flying following a tragic crash. He and Galen reveal how political affiliation impacts perceptions of flight safety, with trust plummeting among Democrats while Republicans remain unchanged. They explore historical trends in aviation incidents and discuss how partisanship shapes public opinion. The conversation also lightens up with airline etiquette trivia, adding a humorous twist to the serious topic of flying fears.

Lenny Bronner, a Senior data scientist at The Washington Post, and Ruth Igielnik, Polling editor at The New York Times, discuss the Democratic Party's record low public favorability. They analyze polling data that reveals a rift among Democrats themselves regarding their party's direction. Topics include the historical context of political wilderness and strategies for reconnecting with core voters. The conversation also covers the recent political landscape in Germany, showcasing how shifts in public opinion can influence party dynamics.

Constitutional law professor Peter Shane, an expert in separation of powers at NYU, delves into the evolution of presidential power, particularly during Trump's presidency. He discusses the implications of executive orders and how they challenge congressional authority. Shane critiques the interpretations of presidential power, comparing them to historical norms and highlighting potential threats to democracy. The conversation also addresses governance challenges and the significant role of democratic norms in everyday American life.

Daniel Cox, Director at the Survey Center on American Life, and Kelsey Eyre Hammond, a researcher, dive into the 'romantic recession' affecting American dating. They explore the rising trend of singledom and societal challenges that complicate meaningful connections. The conversation reveals how educational divides are shaping relationship dynamics, and they discuss the evolving views on marriage and parenthood. With fun games and surprising statistics, they shed light on modern dating difficulties and the interplay between friendship and romance.

The discussion kicks off with a humorous look at prop bets and the cultural craze around the Super Bowl amidst the rising tide of sports gambling. They delve into the concerning offlining of key government datasets under Trump's presidency and its far-reaching implications. The conversation also highlights the significant turnover in Republican Congress members, shedding light on the evolving identity of the party and how data accessibility shapes public trust and national discourse. A fascinating blend of sports and politics!

Jeanna Smialek, Brussels bureau chief for The New York Times, provides a fascinating look at European views on American politics, especially during Trump's second term. She discusses the growing pessimism among European allies and their varied strategies in response to his rhetoric. The conversation covers concerns over tariffs, defense collaboration, and the geopolitical implications of Trump's interest in Greenland. Smialek also highlights the economic challenges Europe faces amidst rising far-right movements and the complex dynamics of transatlantic relations.

Leah Asgardam, a knowledgeable political commentator, joins to discuss President Trump's recent tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico. They delve into how these tariffs are reshaping public opinion, especially as initial support fades amid rising prices. The conversation shifts to Trump's approval ratings, explored through 538's tracker, revealing turbulent dynamics in leadership perceptions. The discussion also considers future strategies for Democrats navigating the complex political landscape post-Trump and the implications for the 2028 primaries.

Matt Glassman, a Senior Fellow at the Government Affairs Institute at Georgetown University, dives into the Trump administration's recent funding controversy. He discusses the implications of a memo impacting DEI programs and the legal battles surrounding federal funding. The conversation illuminates the intricacies of presidential impoundment power, examining historical context and constitutional concerns. Glassman also highlights the ongoing tensions between executive orders and congressional authority, reflecting on the delicate balance needed for effective governance.