FiveThirtyEight Politics Galen’s Cauldron Of Queries
Oct 31, 2024
Mary Radcliffe, a senior researcher, and Nathaniel Rakich, a senior elections analyst, dive into intriguing election dynamics amid Halloween vibes. They address whether favorability impacts voter choices and the surprising ways bad weather might affect turnout. The duo also examines how economic conditions and incumbency influence voter sentiment, particularly among Latino communities. Notably, they discuss the rise in young voter registrations and what that means for upcoming elections, all while sharing their quirky election night traditions.
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Incumbency and Unpopularity
- Incumbency advantage disappears when incumbents are unpopular.
- Harris benefited from being a fresh face, offering voters more flexibility.
Incumbency as Disadvantage
- Global elections show voters punishing incumbents due to post-COVID economic struggles.
- Incumbency might be a disadvantage, especially with inflation affecting voters worldwide.
Predictive Power of Primaries
- Washington state's top-two primary is a decent predictor of national trends, like special elections.
- However, these indicators only provide a general direction, not precise predictions.