FiveThirtyEight Politics An Hour-By-Hour Guide To Election Night
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Nov 5, 2024 
Nathaniel Rakich and Jeffrey Skelly, both senior elections analysts, dive into the intricacies of Election Night. They provide a detailed hour-by-hour guide on what to expect as polls close across the country. The duo discusses the significance of state benchmarks and the challenges of early exit polls. They explore key battlegrounds, highlighting critical voter demographics and the impact of early voting. With a focus on local dynamics in crucial areas like Wayne County, they emphasize the need for patience and careful analysis as results unfold.
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Early Election Night Cautions
- Be wary of early exit poll data and partial results from Indiana and Kentucky.
- These initial data points are often misleading and don't necessarily reflect national trends.
Misleading Early Indicators
- Early results from small, rural counties can be misleading.
- Wait for more comprehensive data before drawing conclusions.
Florida's Early Results
- Florida's fast vote counting provides early insights, but its strong Republican lean might not reflect national trends.
- Focus on county-level results, especially in Miami-Dade and areas around Tampa, for potential shifts.