Nathaniel Rakich

Join Mary Radcliffe, a senior researcher on political psychology, alongside Nathaniel Rakich and Jeffrey Skelly, both senior elections analysts specializing in voter behavior and election trends. They dive into why Democratic turnout dipped and explore the tangled dynamics in North Carolina's voting patterns. Expect a vibrant discussion on bandwagoning behavior, the impact of misinformation, and the complexities of polling data. These experts dissect what's shaping the 2024 electoral landscape with engaging insights and data-driven analysis.

In this insightful discussion, guests Nathaniel Rakich and Jeffrey Skelly, both senior elections analysts, along with Mary Radcliffe, a senior researcher, dive into President Trump’s second inaugural address. They analyze the significance of his aggressive executive orders, contrasting them with pressing public concerns like inflation. The team also tackles the complexities of immigration policies, public sentiment on energy tariffs, and the intricate dynamics of diversity initiatives in a polarized climate, all while navigating changing perceptions in a bipartisan landscape.

Nathaniel Rakich, a Senior elections analyst, and Mary Radcliffe, a Senior researcher, dive into the remarkable highs and lows of Joe Biden’s presidency. They discuss the impactful vaccine rollout and the Inflation Reduction Act, contrasted with challenges like inflation and public opinion. The conversation touches on the current wildfires in California and their political ramifications. With humorous anecdotes about Biden's quirks, they reflect on how presidencies are remembered and the evolving perceptions of Biden's legacy.

The guests, Mary Radcliffe, a Senior Researcher, Elliot Morris, Director of Data Analytics, and Nathaniel Rakich, Senior Elections Analyst, delve into Donald Trump's surprising second presidential victory. They dissect voter shifts among demographics, emphasizing changing attitudes among Hispanic and white voters. The discussion highlights the economic challenges during Biden's presidency and the aggravating political consequences. Finally, they analyze immigration's role in voter turnout and the complexities of Trump’s enduring appeal in a polarized landscape.

Nathaniel Rakich and Mary Radcliffe from FiveThirtyEight dive into a whirlwind of post-election hot takes. They dissect claims about Democrats losing the working class and analyze the accuracy of recent polls. Surprising trends emerge, such as Republican voters supporting liberal measures, and they explore down-ballot voting behaviors, especially regarding abortion initiatives. The duo also reviews the shifting dynamics in the House and Senate, revealing challenges a slim Republican majority faces amidst internal discord.

Ruth Igelnik, a polling editor at The New York Times renowned for her expertise in public opinion research, joins Nathaniel Rakich, a polling analyst recognized for his keen insights on election trends. They dive into the latest polling techniques and the surprising dynamics behind Trump's approval ratings, particularly among disengaged voters. Discussion shifts to recent conference highlights, emphasizing the importance of adjusting methodologies to reflect diverse demographics. The conversation wraps up with a fun game centered on public perceptions of well-known companies.

Nathaniel Rakich and Jeffrey Skelly, both senior elections analysts, dive into the intricacies of Election Night. They provide a detailed hour-by-hour guide on what to expect as polls close across the country. The duo discusses the significance of state benchmarks and the challenges of early exit polls. They explore key battlegrounds, highlighting critical voter demographics and the impact of early voting. With a focus on local dynamics in crucial areas like Wayne County, they emphasize the need for patience and careful analysis as results unfold.

Senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik analyze the first presidential debate between Biden and Trump. They discuss the impact on voter perceptions, Harris' electability, and the focus on taxes vs. inflation in campaign strategies.

Former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth and 538's political analyst Nathaniel Rakich discuss the legal and political implications of Trump's guilty verdict on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records, including potential sentencing options, impact on the upcoming election, analysis of national polls, and voter sentiment following recent events.

David Dutwin, Senior VP at NORC and Chief Scientist of AmeriSpeak, and Nathaniel Rakich, Senior Editor at FiveThirtyEight, dive into the intricate world of polling and surveys. They discuss the nuances of survey design, the challenges of measuring public opinion, and how polling impacts democracy. The pair highlights the importance of accuracy in data collection and the evolving methodologies that aim to enhance polling reliability. They also tackle the complexities of interpreting polling averages and the significance of exit polls in understanding electoral outcomes.