GD POLITICS

How To Fix What Ails Polling

14 snips
May 22, 2025
Ruth Igelnik, a polling editor at The New York Times renowned for her expertise in public opinion research, joins Nathaniel Rakich, a polling analyst recognized for his keen insights on election trends. They dive into the latest polling techniques and the surprising dynamics behind Trump's approval ratings, particularly among disengaged voters. Discussion shifts to recent conference highlights, emphasizing the importance of adjusting methodologies to reflect diverse demographics. The conversation wraps up with a fun game centered on public perceptions of well-known companies.
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INSIGHT

Low News Attention Boosts Trump Approval

  • Around 40% of Trump's approvers are not paying attention to the news, boosting his approval ratings among less informed voters.
  • Lack of news attention correlates with higher approval of Trump, even controlling for partisan and demographic factors.
INSIGHT

Trump Approval Improvement Uncertain

  • Trump's approval rating appears to have improved recently, but high-quality polls show no substantial change yet.
  • Many upticks come from lower-quality surveys, so more rigorous data is needed to confirm durability.
ANECDOTE

Conference Bar Life and Food Fun

  • The conference featured social activities with pollsters enjoying local St. Louis cuisine, including toasted ravioli and Emo's pizza.
  • Nathaniel Rakich humorously debated the preferred toasted ravioli filling with Ruth Igelnik.
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