GD POLITICS

In this discussion, Michael Lang, a New York City elections analyst and author of The Narrative Wars, dives into the chaos of the NYC mayoral race. He outlines how Eric Adams' shift to Independent changed the political landscape. Lang breaks down polling trends, highlighting last-minute shifts toward Cuomo and undercounting among young voters. They analyze neighborhood coalitions, Mamdani's strategic shifts on key issues, and implications of early voting patterns. Tune in for insights into potential election dynamics!

Chaz Nuttycombe, Executive Director of State Navigate, brings insights on significant statewide races, particularly in Virginia and New Jersey. He discusses the Democratic advantage in Virginia's gubernatorial race, revealing key factors like candidate quality and historical patterns. Mary Radcliffe, a poll aggregator from FiftyPlusOne, delves into polling methodologies, highlighting variances in poll results. Both guests analyze voter coalitions, including demographic splits in New Jersey, and the implications of turnout patterns on upcoming elections.

Joan C. Williams, a law professor and author, dives into the complexities of political moderation and its implications for voter support. She clarifies that moderation is not synonymous with centrism, exploring how different types affect electoral success. Joan argues that candidates need to blend popular left and right positions to attract diverse coalitions. She also highlights the disconnect between elite communication and working-class voters, stressing the importance of understanding middle-status preferences for effective political engagement.

Leah Askarinam, an election reporter for the Associated Press, and Geoffrey Skelley, chief elections analyst for Decision Desk HQ, dive into the competitive Maine Senate race. They discuss Governor Janet Mills' electability against Senator Susan Collins and the implications of recent controversies surrounding challenger Graham Platner. The duo also analyzes the crucial Voting Rights Act case that could reshape electoral dynamics. Topics range from the importance of voter preferences to the stakes of redistricting, making it a must-listen for political enthusiasts!

In this discussion, Harvard cognitive psychologist Steven Pinker delves into the concept of common knowledge and its profound effects on human behavior and political landscapes. He explains how people change their voting decisions based on what they believe others will do. Pinker also explores how Super Bowl ads and public negotiations create widespread awareness, influencing societal dynamics. Moreover, he touches on how social media can amplify misconceptions and enforce social norms, revealing the intricate dance between knowledge and behavior.

Gabe Fleischer, a young political analyst and author of Wake Up To Politics, dives into the complexities of the government shutdown and its implications. He discusses which federal workers are impacted and the political dynamics at play. The conversation shifts to a critical analysis of a recent awkward interview with California gubernatorial candidate Katie Porter. Gabe also shares insights on public sentiment regarding free speech and political violence, highlighting how misperceptions can fuel polarization. Stay tuned for some surprising polling data!

Jacob Rubashkin, Deputy Editor at Inside Elections, shares his expertise on pivotal 2025 races. He discusses the tight governor’s race in New Jersey, where Democrat Mikie Sherrill faces Republican Jack Ciattarelli. In Virginia, he highlights the historical context and political dynamics shaping the governor's contest. Jacob also unpacks the significance of California's Prop 50 for House seats and raises concerns about recent GOP scandals influencing down-ballot races. Expect key insights on how these elections could impact the political landscape.

Mary Radcliffe, a political commentator specializing in Pennsylvania, and Lenny Brawner, a senior data scientist at The Washington Post, dive into the dynamics behind the government shutdown. They discuss polling data revealing that Americans blame Republicans more than Democrats, influencing compromise strategies. The duo explores how question wording impacts survey results and the historical patterns of blame. They also analyze the latest New York Times poll findings, highlighting the stark gender gap in approval ratings and the implications for political strategies.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.gdpolitics.comWe are currently offering our first-ever discount on paid subscriptions. Right now, an annual subscription is 20% off, meaning you’ll become a paid subscriber for just $5/month. Paid subscribers get access to a second weekly podcast, including the audio and video from live shows like the one above and our upcoming live show on November 3rd.Today’s episode is a live taping of the podcast with Nate Silver and Clare Malone at the Comedy Cellar in New York City. The video version is available here.During the taping, we discuss the strategy involved in a government shutdown (it hadn’t happened at the time of the recording, but we predicted that it would come to pass). We also introduce a new segment called, “Hot Take Hat.” There was so much news to discuss that we couldn’t decide which stories to cover, so we left it to chance. As a result, we discuss the NYC mayoral race, gerrymandering, vaccines, Fed independence, and more.Lastly, we play a game of “Guess Which Comedian Said This.” It was not lost on us that we were recording the podcast in something of a sacred place for comedians, during a time when the government is challenging First Amendment principles. To mark the significance, we compete — along with the audience — to identify which comedian is responsible for some audacious excerpts of political satire.We wrap up with some very thoughtful questions from members of the audience, ranging from free speech to Trump’s energy policy.

The Left has long claimed the mantle of the party of working people. As recently as last decade, Democrats posted twenty point margins with union households. In the Trump era, the Right has posed a significant challenge to that identity. In 2024, Harris won union households by just 8 points, though as union membership has declined, that may not be the most apt measurement. Lower and middle income people have also shifted decidedly to the right.The stories that the two parties tell when trying to win over workers have variations, but generally go something like this: American workers have gotten the short end of the stick over the past half-century, as globalization and free trade have taken root, manufacturing has been hollowed out, and wages have stagnated. The Left includes blame for greedy corporations and union busting and the Right includes blame for mass migration and regulation.The majority of American adults are “working people,” and so there’s plenty of political power in claiming them as core to your coalition. That is the focus of today’s podcast. According to the data, how are workers doing and what do they think of the politicians who say they’re serving them?With me to discuss is John Lettieri, co-founder and president of the Economic Innovation Group, a bipartisan think tank. They put together plenty of economic research, including a recent poll of American workers, which they did with Echelon Insights. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.gdpolitics.com/subscribe