GD POLITICS

Jacob Rubashkin, Deputy Editor at Inside Elections, shares his expertise on pivotal 2025 races. He discusses the tight governor’s race in New Jersey, where Democrat Mikie Sherrill faces Republican Jack Ciattarelli. In Virginia, he highlights the historical context and political dynamics shaping the governor's contest. Jacob also unpacks the significance of California's Prop 50 for House seats and raises concerns about recent GOP scandals influencing down-ballot races. Expect key insights on how these elections could impact the political landscape.

Mary Radcliffe, a political commentator specializing in Pennsylvania, and Lenny Brawner, a senior data scientist at The Washington Post, dive into the dynamics behind the government shutdown. They discuss polling data revealing that Americans blame Republicans more than Democrats, influencing compromise strategies. The duo explores how question wording impacts survey results and the historical patterns of blame. They also analyze the latest New York Times poll findings, highlighting the stark gender gap in approval ratings and the implications for political strategies.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.gdpolitics.comWe are currently offering our first-ever discount on paid subscriptions. Right now, an annual subscription is 20% off, meaning you’ll become a paid subscriber for just $5/month. Paid subscribers get access to a second weekly podcast, including the audio and video from live shows like the one above and our upcoming live show on November 3rd.Today’s episode is a live taping of the podcast with Nate Silver and Clare Malone at the Comedy Cellar in New York City. The video version is available here.During the taping, we discuss the strategy involved in a government shutdown (it hadn’t happened at the time of the recording, but we predicted that it would come to pass). We also introduce a new segment called, “Hot Take Hat.” There was so much news to discuss that we couldn’t decide which stories to cover, so we left it to chance. As a result, we discuss the NYC mayoral race, gerrymandering, vaccines, Fed independence, and more.Lastly, we play a game of “Guess Which Comedian Said This.” It was not lost on us that we were recording the podcast in something of a sacred place for comedians, during a time when the government is challenging First Amendment principles. To mark the significance, we compete — along with the audience — to identify which comedian is responsible for some audacious excerpts of political satire.We wrap up with some very thoughtful questions from members of the audience, ranging from free speech to Trump’s energy policy.

The Left has long claimed the mantle of the party of working people. As recently as last decade, Democrats posted twenty point margins with union households. In the Trump era, the Right has posed a significant challenge to that identity. In 2024, Harris won union households by just 8 points, though as union membership has declined, that may not be the most apt measurement. Lower and middle income people have also shifted decidedly to the right.The stories that the two parties tell when trying to win over workers have variations, but generally go something like this: American workers have gotten the short end of the stick over the past half-century, as globalization and free trade have taken root, manufacturing has been hollowed out, and wages have stagnated. The Left includes blame for greedy corporations and union busting and the Right includes blame for mass migration and regulation.The majority of American adults are “working people,” and so there’s plenty of political power in claiming them as core to your coalition. That is the focus of today’s podcast. According to the data, how are workers doing and what do they think of the politicians who say they’re serving them?With me to discuss is John Lettieri, co-founder and president of the Economic Innovation Group, a bipartisan think tank. They put together plenty of economic research, including a recent poll of American workers, which they did with Echelon Insights. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.gdpolitics.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.gdpolitics.comThe full episode is available to paid subscribers. Once you become a paid subscriber, you can connect your account to your preferred podcast player by following the directions here.We’ve got a lot to talk about today. We cover who is actually watching late night TV, Kamala Harris’s new book, whether politicians are using AI to do their jobs, whether efforts to reduce partisan animus actually work, and the government’s move to cancel a survey measuring how many Americans are going hungry.I say we, but I actually mean me. When I launched this podcast I said that I wanted to hear directly from you, the listeners, and speak directly to you as well. I imagined that might include episodes where I’d open up the mic and do exactly that … talk to you. I did it a couple times early on, but it’s been a minute and so I want to do it again.Tentatively I’ll call this the GD Notebook. I’ll open up my notes — books, articles, and the likes — that I’ve been reading and share them along with some thoughts and answer some of your questions. Often when I read a compelling article or poll, I’ll reach out to the author or talk about it with guests on the podcast, but I read a lot of stuff and we often don’t get to all of it. I constantly have loads of tabs open on my computer with things we didn’t get to. Hopefully we can make good use of them here!Today we’re mostly going to go through my notebook, but, as a reminder, you can send in questions on the paid subscriber chat and at galen@gdpolitics.com.

Nadine Strossen, a longtime defender of the First Amendment and former ACLU president, discusses the critical state of free speech in America. She tackles recent presidential attacks on expression and stresses its democratic value. Strossen addresses how legal protections exist but often fail due to political pressure and cancel culture. Additionally, she contrasts U.S. hate speech laws with those in Europe, encouraging civic engagement to protect free expression and challenge ineffective regulations.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.gdpolitics.comThe full episode is available to paid subscribers. Once you become a paid subscriber, you can connect your account to your preferred podcast player by following the directions here.On today’s podcast we talk about two shutdowns: the indefinite preemption of Jimmy Kimmel Live! and the possibility that Democrats will shut the government down at the end of the month.Wednesday night Jimmy Kimmel went the way of FiveThirtyEight (at least for now), when ABC preempted his show indefinitely. In a monologue on the show he had appeared to suggest that Charlie Kirk’s killer was a Republican, saying "The MAGA gang desperately trying to characterize this kid who murdered Charlie Kirk as anything other than one of them and doing everything they can to score political points from it."On Wednesday, FCC chair Brendan Carr appeared to threaten Disney over the comments saying, “This is a very, very serious issue right now for Disney. We can do this the easy way or the hard way,” and, “These companies can find ways to take action on Kimmel, or there is going to be additional work for the FCC ahead.”This has all caused outrage over the suggestion of government coercion and censorship and it comes not long after Attorney General Pam Bondi characterized the First Amendment as not covering hate speech.Today on the podcast, Mary Radcliffe, Nathaniel Rakich, and I react to the developments and the broader political environment in the aftermath of Kirk’s killing. We also debate whether Democrats should shut the government down.

Clare Malone, a staff writer at The New Yorker and former podcaster at FiveThirtyEight Politics, dives into pressing political issues. She discusses the implications of Charlie Kirk’s assassination and the evolving ‘Make America Healthy Again’ movement. Clare analyzes polling trends in the NYC mayoral race, highlights the Democratic messaging struggles regarding Trump's 'culture of corruption,' and explores the Murdoch family’s media legacy and its impact on conservative discourse.

Lenny Bronner, a senior data scientist at The Washington Post and an expert in election analytics, joins the discussion. They address the tragic political violence surrounding Charlie Kirk's assassination, emphasizing the need for unity in condemning such acts. The conversation dives into Virginia's recent special election, revealing shifting voter trends and mail-in ballot concerns. They also analyze the political climate in Europe with a focus on cost of living issues influencing far-right party gains, and discuss how spam impacts polling accuracy.

Nathaniel Rakich, a savvy data journalist and political analyst, teams up with Mary Radcliffe, a sharp data scientist and political analyst, to dissect the shifting political landscape. They dive into the implications of the upcoming special election in Virginia's 11th district and how Democrats are over-performing. The duo also unpacks job market trends and public sentiment regarding Trump's economic influence, while exploring dire population trends that could reshape the Electoral College for Democrats in the next decade.