GD POLITICS

A 2025 Election Post-Mortem

Nov 13, 2025
Lakshya Jain, head of political data at The Argument, Linley Sanders, polls reporter at the AP, and Lenny Bronner, data scientist at The Washington Post, dive into the 2025 election outcomes. They dissect whether voter shifts were driven more by turnout or persuasion, revealing significant swings among Hispanic voters. The discussion highlights key motivators for voters, including economic concerns and dissatisfaction with Trump, while examining youth turnout's impact in New York. A fascinating breakdown offers insights into the shifting political landscape as we look ahead.
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INSIGHT

Turnout And Persuasion Are Intertwined

  • Turnout and persuasion often operate together: motivating issues both bring voters to the polls and flip their choices.
  • Democrats' success in 2025 reflected both mobilizing supporters and persuading prior Trump voters in key races.
INSIGHT

Hispanic Vote Showed Major Reversion

  • Substantial Hispanic swing from Trump in 2024 to Democrats in 2025 reflected real persuasion in places like New Jersey.
  • Some of that swing likely reverted Biden 2020 to Trump 2024 voters moving back to Democrats down-ballot in 2025.
INSIGHT

Economy Was The Dominant Motivator

  • Economy and pocketbook concerns were the top motivators in Virginia, New Jersey, and NYC races.
  • These economic worries both drove turnout and pushed voters to switch parties in affected districts.
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