FiveThirtyEight Politics Do Voters Care About Democracy?
Oct 28, 2024
Mary Radcliffe, a senior researcher at FiveThirtyEight, and Elliot Morris, the editorial director of data, engage in a compelling discussion about democracy's importance to voters. They analyze a provocative comment from Trump's former chief of staff labeling Trump a "fascist" and its potential electoral implications. The pair dives into the voting behaviors of young men, highlighting their growing political disillusionment and shift towards independence. They also explore how anti-democratic actions, especially post-January 6th, impact voter perceptions.
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Halloween Costumes
- Galen Druke and Micah Cohen's children are going trick-or-treating.
- Cohen's daughter will dress as Adam Sandler, wearing a Hawaiian shirt and basketball shorts.
Horse Race Tight
- The 538 national average shows Kamala Harris leading by a slim margin, but several states are tied.
- There's still significant variation among different polls, with some showing a tie and others a larger lead for Harris.
Interpreting Early Voting Data
- Don't compare raw early voting numbers; establish benchmarks like the share of previous early voters.
- Wait until closer to election day for more reliable analysis, as much of the data is yet to come in.