FiveThirtyEight Politics The Pollercoaster Takes A Final Plunge
Nov 4, 2024
Mary Radcliffe, a Senior researcher at FiveThirtyEight, and Ruth Igielnik, a New York Times polling editor, dive into the frenzied world of last-minute polling. They discuss the surprising Iowa Poll that paints a hopeful picture for Kamala Harris and reveal key findings from New York Times battleground surveys that challenge common trends. The conversation highlights the unpredictability of voter sentiment, the challenges of poll accuracy, and the implications of late deciders as Election Day approaches.
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Close Race Doesn't Guarantee Close Result
- Current polling averages suggest a close race between Harris and Trump.
- However, a close average doesn't guarantee a close election result, due to potential polling errors.
Herding Concerns
- Polling herding might be skewing results, especially in states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
- Pollsters may be hesitant to publish outlier polls.
Two Potential Polling Issues
- Two potential reasons exist for the observed discrepancies between polls.
- Either traditional polling methods are flawed, or methodological adjustments have created new issues.