FiveThirtyEight Politics
The Pollercoaster Takes A Final Plunge
Nov 4, 2024
Mary Radcliffe, a Senior researcher at FiveThirtyEight, and Ruth Igielnik, a New York Times polling editor, dive into the frenzied world of last-minute polling. They discuss the surprising Iowa Poll that paints a hopeful picture for Kamala Harris and reveal key findings from New York Times battleground surveys that challenge common trends. The conversation highlights the unpredictability of voter sentiment, the challenges of poll accuracy, and the implications of late deciders as Election Day approaches.
41:33
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Quick takeaways
- Recent polling data highlights a competitive race for the 2024 election, with critical states showing a surprising shift in voter sentiment.
- The rise in early voting, especially among women motivated by key issues like abortion, underscores the evolving dynamics of the electorate.
Deep dives
Trends in Recent Polls
Recent polling data shows a dynamic shift in the 2024 election race, particularly in battleground states. Notably, a final Iowa poll indicated Harris leading Trump by three points, a surprising contrast to Trump's previous eight-point lead in 2020. New York Times battleground polls highlight a reversal of trends, with Harris showing slight leads in Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and Wisconsin, while trailing in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Arizona. These varying trends suggest the election remains highly competitive, with less than a point separating candidates in several states.
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