FiveThirtyEight Politics

Discussion on the surprise victory of Democrat Tom Swazie over Republican Mazie Pilop in New York's third congressional district, the national implications of the election results, Nikki Haley's messaging strategy, and the importance of Asian American voting block in Queens.

Analysis of the special election in New York's 3rd Congressional District. The significance of the Republican party's campaign strategy in the suburbs. The growing importance of immigration and the border as key issues. Perception of age in Biden and Trump. Concerns about Biden's fitness and Trump's legal troubles. The failure of a bipartisan border security bill in Congress.

Experts reveal the most valuable data point for understanding the 2024 election, including voters' perceptions of the candidates, issues that could influence the outcome, and the importance of 'double haters'. They discuss the impact of age on voter preferences, motivations of Latino voters, the significance of voter turnout, the concept of double negatives in elections, and the influence of third-party candidates and Biden's approval rating.

The podcast discusses the influence of Taylor Swift and whether her endorsement in a presidential election can sway voters. They question the validity of polling data and analyze the impact of Swift on the favorability of the NFL among women. They also discuss Nevada's unique primary system, Nikki Haley's filing status in the primary, fundraising efforts of presidential candidates, the impact of advertising on political races, and Adam Schiff's Senate campaign and strategic use of political advertisements.

The podcast explores Americans' views on the economy and President Biden's handling of it. They discuss factors like inflation, interest rates, and the stock market. Experts analyze consumer sentiment and the impact of the news environment on perceptions of inflation. The debate centers around whether sentiment is based on vibes or hard data. The podcast also examines Americans' negative perception of the economy during Biden's presidency and the impact of the pandemic. The current state of the economy is discussed, including low unemployment rates and wage growth.

The 538 Politics podcast discusses evolving public sentiment on immigration, proposed policy changes, and the political landscape. They explore the changing politics of border security, political motivations behind actions, and the split within the Republican Party. They also analyze public opinion on politics, perception of age in relation to the presidency, and the importance of accuracy and transparency in pollster rankings.

The podcast discusses the results and exit poll data of the New Hampshire primary, highlighting Nikki Haley's performance and appeal to educated and wealthy suburban voters. It also explores the high voter turnout and voting rules in the state. The chapter analyzes the impact of the primary on Dean Phillips' campaign and the unity behind Trump in the GOP.

The podcast discusses the narrowing of the Republican primary field, Ron DeSantis' decline as a contender, and Nikki Haley's chances in the New Hampshire primary. They also explore candidate improvement through campaigns, timeline considerations for Biden and Trump, and the importance of accurately assessing political knowledge in polling.

Galen speaks with Annmarie Timmins, Senior Reporter at the New Hampshire Bulletin, and Neil Levesque, Director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, about the potentially competitive contest between Trump and Nikki Haley in New Hampshire's primary. They discuss the impact of cancellation of a debate on their campaigns and voter preferences. The chapter also explores the key issues important to Republican primary voters in the state and Biden's poor performance on immigration.

Analyzing the results and implications of Trump's victory in Iowa, including DeSantis edging out Haley. Exploring the challenges faced by DeSantis in emulating Trump's style and the potential impact of Trump's conviction on the election outcome. Highlighting the importance of presidential primaries and discussing the idea of joining tickets and picking a woman as a running mate.