Galen speaks with Annmarie Timmins, Senior Reporter at the New Hampshire Bulletin, and Neil Levesque, Director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, about the potentially competitive contest between Trump and Nikki Haley in New Hampshire's primary. They discuss the impact of cancellation of a debate on their campaigns and voter preferences. The chapter also explores the key issues important to Republican primary voters in the state and Biden's poor performance on immigration.
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Quick takeaways
The contest in New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary is highly competitive with Donald Trump leading but facing potential shifts in voter preferences as candidates drop out and voters reallocate their support.
The key issues motivating voters in New Hampshire include the economy, immigration, government spending and taxes, and national security, with immigration emerging as a significant concern due to fears of job loss, drugs, and crime associated with illegal immigration.
Deep dives
Trump leads in New Hampshire with 46% support
According to polling averages, Donald Trump currently leads in New Hampshire with 46% support, followed by Nikki Haley with 33% and Ron DeSantis with 5%. This makes the contest in New Hampshire the most competitive in the country, although Trump still maintains a double-digit lead. The polling shows that support in primaries can be volatile, and there is a potential for shifting voter preferences as candidates drop out and voters reallocate their support.
New Hampshire's primary calendar dispute
The Democratic National Committee changed its primary calendar order this year, putting South Carolina first instead of New Hampshire, which has the mandate in its state constitution to hold the first primary. As a result, Joe Biden is not on the ballot in New Hampshire, and no delegates will be awarded. Congressman Dean Phillips and author Marianne Williamson are running, and Biden supporters have launched a write-in campaign. This calendar dispute has caused some drama on the Democratic side of things.
Shifting support and candidate pitches on the ground
Support for candidates has been fluctuating in New Hampshire since the Iowa caucuses. According to recent polling, both Trump and Nikki Haley have gone up by seven points. Trump's support is at 52% in the polls, while Haley lags behind. On the ground, voters attending events for both candidates are still shopping for a candidate, even between Haley and Ron DeSantis. Some voters feel that Iowa does not dictate their choices, and the pitches from the candidates have not significantly changed. Events like debates and media coverage play a role in shaping voters' perceptions as the primary approaches.
The influence of issues and voter demographics
Key issues motivating voters in New Hampshire include the economy, immigration, government spending and taxes, and national security. Immigration, in particular, has become a significant concern for voters, with fears about job loss, drugs, and crime associated with illegal immigration. New Hampshire's demographic shift, with more Republicans and polarized newcomers moving in, may also impact the political landscape. Independents still make up a substantial portion of the electorate, and voter turnout among young people may not be as high as expected for this election.
With New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary quickly approaching, the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast heads to the Granite State. Galen speaks with Annmarie Timmins, Senior Reporter at the New Hampshire Bulletin, and Neil Levesque, Director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College, about the potentially competitive contest between frontrunner former President Donald Trump and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, as well as the nuances of New Hampshire’s electorate.