The podcast discusses the results and exit poll data of the New Hampshire primary, highlighting Nikki Haley's performance and appeal to educated and wealthy suburban voters. It also explores the high voter turnout and voting rules in the state. The chapter analyzes the impact of the primary on Dean Phillips' campaign and the unity behind Trump in the GOP.
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Quick takeaways
Nikki Haley's better-than-expected performance in the New Hampshire Republican primary indicates potential support from independent voters.
The data from the primary suggests that undecided voters dissatisfied with both candidates will heavily influence the upcoming general election.
Deep dives
Nikki Haley's performance in New Hampshire Republican primary
Nikki Haley performed better than expected in the New Hampshire Republican primary, but still lost to Donald Trump by 10 points. Despite a surge in support leading up to the Iowa caucuses, Haley's favorability dropped, while Trump's increased. Turnout in the primary was higher than anticipated, with an influx of independent voters who likely favored Haley. However, Trump's coalition remained strong, and he gained support from former rivals like Rhonda Santos. This result indicates that subsequent states are more favorable for Trump, making it difficult for Haley to mount a substantial challenge to his nomination.
Biden's performance in New Hampshire Democratic primary
The New Hampshire Democratic primary was not highly contested, with Joe Biden receiving an estimated 66% of the vote, despite not being listed on the ballot. Dean Phillips ran a writing campaign but fell short. The turnout showed higher-than-expected numbers, with independent voters playing a significant role. While Biden's victory was expected, it does not indicate weakening grassroots enthusiasm. The next phase of the campaign will be crucial for Biden to maintain momentum and consolidate support.
Enthusiasm gap between Trump and Haley voters
An interesting data point from the election was the gap in enthusiasm between Trump and Nikki Haley voters. While Trump supporters exhibited high enthusiasm, Haley voters showed less overwhelming enthusiasm. This disparity is crucial considering that a significant portion of the electorate holds negative views of both Biden and Trump. Haley was able to attract some of these voters in New Hampshire, but as the race moves into the general election, they will face the choice of not voting, voting third-party, or reluctantly voting for one of the two major candidates.
Implications for the general election
As the Republican primary enters the stage where subsequent states are more demographically favorable for Trump, it becomes increasingly clear that he is on track toward securing the nomination. Haley's loss in New Hampshire, which is her most favorable state, underscores the challenge she faces in competing with Trump. The data from the primary also suggests that undecided voters who are dissatisfied with both candidates will play a significant role in the upcoming general election. Their choices will heavily influence the outcome in November.
In a late-night New Hampshire primary reaction edition of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew concludes that the GOP primary is basically over, even if not literally. They dig into the results and exit poll data to describe the coalitions that backed Trump and Haley and explain why this was Haley's best shot at scoring a win.