The podcast discusses the narrowing of the Republican primary field, Ron DeSantis' decline as a contender, and Nikki Haley's chances in the New Hampshire primary. They also explore candidate improvement through campaigns, timeline considerations for Biden and Trump, and the importance of accurately assessing political knowledge in polling.
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Quick takeaways
Former President Trump has a significant lead over Nikki Haley in the Republican primary in New Hampshire, making it challenging for Haley to secure the nomination.
A write-in campaign organized by President Biden's allies in the New Hampshire primary shows Biden with a strong lead, but a poor showing could fuel the narrative of division and weakness within the Democratic Party.
Deep dives
New Hampshire Republican primary: Trump leads Haley by 14 points
According to recent polls in New Hampshire, former President Trump has a 14-point lead over former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley in the Republican primary. The polls show Trump with 50% support and Haley with 36% support. While the primary may still continue, the overwhelming support for Trump suggests a challenging path for Haley to secure the nomination.
New Hampshire Democratic primary: Biden's write-in campaign
Although President Biden did not file to be on the New Hampshire primary ballot, his allies have organized a write-in campaign. Recent polls show Biden with a strong lead over his main competition, Congressman Dean Phillips, with a margin of around 30 points. While the primary may not have much impact on Biden's overall nomination, a poor showing could lead to negative media coverage and fuel the ongoing narrative of division and weakness within the Democratic Party.
Polling insight: Understanding the 14th Amendment
According to a University of New Hampshire poll, while 36% of respondents claim to understand the 14th Amendment 'very well,' and 42% say they understand it 'somewhat well,' the reality is that many respondents may have a limited understanding of the amendment and its application in barring those who have engaged in insurrection from holding office. This highlights the challenges of accurately gauging public knowledge and comprehension of complex constitutional issues through polling alone.
The Republican primary is officially a two-person race. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew talks about Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis dropping out of the presidential race, expectations for New Hampshire and the future of the Republican primary. They also consider whether a poll asking New Hampshire residents how well they understand the 14th Amendment is a good use of polling.