The podcast explores Americans' views on the economy and President Biden's handling of it. They discuss factors like inflation, interest rates, and the stock market. Experts analyze consumer sentiment and the impact of the news environment on perceptions of inflation. The debate centers around whether sentiment is based on vibes or hard data. The podcast also examines Americans' negative perception of the economy during Biden's presidency and the impact of the pandemic. The current state of the economy is discussed, including low unemployment rates and wage growth.
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Quick takeaways
Consumer sentiment has improved in the last two months, indicating increased confidence in the economy's trajectory despite remaining below historical average.
Various factors, such as inflation, media coverage, and partisan views, contribute to the fluctuations in consumer sentiment and its impact on the perception of the economy.
Deep dives
Improvement in Consumer Sentiment
The Consumer Sentiment Index, a University of Michigan survey, shows that consumer sentiment has improved in the last two months. This improvement follows a few months of stagnation. Multiple measures of sentiment are also showing a similar trend. Consumers have become more confident that the slowdown in inflation will persist. However, sentiment still remains below the historical average, indicating that consumers are still not feeling great about the economy.
Recent Surge in Consumer Sentiment
Over the last two months, there has been a significant increase in consumer sentiment. The index of consumer sentiment has risen by 29% between November and January, which is an improvement of a magnitude not seen since 1991. This surge in sentiment is a remarkable improvement from the low levels witnessed in 2022. However, despite this increase, consumers still feel mixed about the trajectory of the economy, with equal shares believing it will improve or deteriorate in the year ahead.
Factors Influencing Consumer Sentiment
When analyzing consumer sentiment data, it is important to consider various factors that influence perceptions. Inflation and high prices are the main concerns reported by consumers. Many individuals compare the current prices to pre-pandemic levels in 2019, creating a collective reckoning that the economy will not return to the previous normal. The media environment also plays a role, with negative news about inflation being reported more frequently than in the past. Additionally, partisanship and political identification contribute to the differences in sentiment between Republicans and Democrats.
Complexity of Interpreting Consumer Sentiment
Consumer sentiment should be understood as a multifaceted measure that reflects various aspects of people's lives and their political expression. Sentiment is influenced by both economic realities and the media landscape. Partisan views also impact sentiment, with Republicans exhibiting larger shifts in sentiment compared to Democrats during changes in political leadership. While sentiment is an important metric, it should be interpreted alongside other economic indicators and political factors that shape perceptions of the economy.
The conventional wisdom is that the economy and a president’s fate are closely tied. For much of Joe Biden’s presidency, part of the story has been that despite a strong labor market and economic growth, views of the economy and Biden’s handling of it have been abysmal.
A lot of that likely had to do with inflation, rising interest rates and a declining stock market. Trends that, as of right now, have abated and even reversed. So what’s happened over the past three years and where are we headed? And what does all of that mean for November 2024?
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Joanne Hsu, who directs the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, and Neale Mahoney, economics professor at Stanford University.