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Experts reveal the most valuable data point for understanding the 2024 election, including voters' perceptions of the candidates, issues that could influence the outcome, and the importance of 'double haters'. They discuss the impact of age on voter preferences, motivations of Latino voters, the significance of voter turnout, the concept of double negatives in elections, and the influence of third-party candidates and Biden's approval rating.
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Quick takeaways
- The comparison of Joe Biden and Donald Trump's perceived effectiveness and competency is a key data point that can significantly impact the election's outcome.
- The perception of low stakes in the election may hurt Biden, particularly among young voters and voters of color, highlighting the importance of mobilizing these demographics through tracking their perception of political power.
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The Age Factor: Perceptions of Competency and Effectiveness
One key data point to watch in understanding the 2024 election is the comparison of Joe Biden and Donald Trump's perceived effectiveness and competency. Currently, Donald Trump is leading Biden on this question, which raises concerns about Biden's ability to overcome the age issue. Voters' beliefs about a candidate's ability to do the job effectively and competently can significantly impact their choice in the election.
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