The 538 Politics podcast discusses evolving public sentiment on immigration, proposed policy changes, and the political landscape. They explore the changing politics of border security, political motivations behind actions, and the split within the Republican Party. They also analyze public opinion on politics, perception of age in relation to the presidency, and the importance of accuracy and transparency in pollster rankings.
The bipartisan negotiations on border security aim to address the increase in apprehensions, backlog of immigration court cases, and encounters with unaccompanied children.
The politics surrounding immigration have shifted focus towards border security and away from comprehensive immigration reform, with Republicans leveraging the issue for the 2024 presidential election.
Public opinion on immigration has become increasingly important, with surveys showing dissatisfaction with both Trump and Biden, and the issue surpassing the economy as Americans' top concern in some polls.
Deep dives
Border security deal negotiations
A bipartisan group of negotiators is working on a deal regarding border security. While the full text has not been released, the bill would grant President Biden new emergency authority to shut down the border when overwhelmed. The deal aims to address the increase in apprehensions at the border, the backlog of immigration court cases, and the rise in encounters with unaccompanied children. Biden's approval rating on immigration is low, and negotiators are attempting to find a bipartisan solution that ties the border deal to aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.
Changing dynamics of immigration politics
The politics surrounding immigration have evolved, driven in part by the salience of the issue for conservative voters who view it as a top priority. Trump's focus on the border and his aggressive immigration policies have added to its significance. Republicans, including Trump, aim to leverage the issue to their advantage in the 2024 presidential election. Democrats, on the other hand, are grappling with finding a palatable solution that addresses border security concerns while also meeting the needs of their progressive base. The changing dynamics have shifted the conversation predominantly toward border security and away from comprehensive immigration reform.
Implications and implications for public opinion and the general election
Public opinion on immigration and border security plays a significant role in shaping the political landscape. Surveys show that a substantial percentage of Americans are dissatisfied with both Trump and Biden potentially becoming their party's nominees. Biden's approval rating on immigration has decreased, and the issue of immigration has surpassed the economy as the most important concern for Americans in some polls. For Democrats, finding a solution that addresses border security while protecting the rights of undocumented immigrants, such as dreamers, is imperative. Republicans, including Trump, are aiming to maintain their stronghold on the issue and capitalize on voters' concerns, including border security and national sovereignty.
Top Pollsters in America
According to the updated 538 pollster ratings, the top five pollsters in America are: New York Times/Siena College, ABC News/Washington Post, Marquette University Law School, YouGov, and Monmouth University. These pollsters are considered the most accurate and transparent in their methodologies.
Bias and Transparency Impact
The updated pollster ratings now include both bias and transparency as factors in determining the rankings. Pollsters who have a history of accuracy and transparency in their methods are ranked higher. The inclusion of transparency is a new addition, with pollsters being evaluated based on their disclosure of information such as cross tabs, sampling errors, and data releases. The rankings serve as a useful tool for evaluating the trustworthiness of polls when analyzing public opinion.
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew explores the thorny negotiations surrounding immigration and border security in Washington. Galen talks to Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research; Rachael Bade, author of POLITICO Playbook; and Leah Askarinam, 538 politics reporter. Together, the crew discusses evolving public sentiment on immigration, explores proposed policy changes and guesses what Americans think about the political landscape right now. Later in the show, Galen is joined by G. Elliott Morris, 538’s director of data analytics, to uncover more about how 538's pollster ratings are determined and reveal what are the best pollsters in America.
