

Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class II Part II [8.24.15]
Aug 24, 2015
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Introduction
00:00 • 3min
The Merging Discipline of Question Generation
02:40 • 3min
The Pros and Cons of Forecasting Polls
05:11 • 5min
The Doomsday China China Scenario
10:37 • 2min
The Dissociation of Predictions
12:42 • 3min
The Hedgehonging Story
15:46 • 3min
The Importance of Storytelling
19:00 • 3min
The Case of Jimmy Carter's Decision to Hide the Elastic Rescue for the Iranian Hostages
21:52 • 3min
The Relationship Between Prediction and Choice
24:39 • 3min
The Power of Experience
27:29 • 3min
The Importance of Predictability in International Politics
30:30 • 3min
The Importance of Predictability
33:33 • 3min
The Impact of Manipulation on Super-Forcasters
36:33 • 4min
The Importance of Probability in Decision Making
40:07 • 2min
The Importance of Choices
42:00 • 2min
The Importance of Question Plus
44:25 • 3min