Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class II Part II [8.24.15]
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The Importance of Choices
This is almost like a psychophysical question of how did changes in probability map on to propensity to act? And that's not well defined at all. An alternative way of doing it would be making a contingent on action rather than on the resolution of a date issue. But there's also a good question, it has to do with choices available.
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