
Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class II Part II [8.24.15]
EdgeCast
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The Importance of Question Plus
I think that we're resorted to these sort of indirect methods like trying to store action as a product. You'd be, you'd want questions that would tip the action calculus. It's more like, what's the math? Give them the questions. What's the math and actions that then become reasonable possible? Once you have those, even whatever your incentives are, given probabilities, what are your choice structures? There's something appealingly dislicing about what you're saying, yet I think it's very risky to bypass all the discourse that surrounds these things. But this other approach doesn't have to disconnect.
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