
Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class II Part II [8.24.15]
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The Power of Experience
The power of experience means a little bit more than that. But it isn't so much available in the tournament format. I mean, maybe we should meet techniques to avoid over-dependence and personal experience. Let me give you another example. When Lyndon Johnson was considered whether to escalate American involvement in Vietnam in a big way, it was also a debate. They also took some time, and also by a dozen people.
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