Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class II Part II [8.24.15]
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Introduction
I'm curious whether there's any ability to try to generalize, like for example, if you ask these experts, in line of these new naval exercises. Would it be possible to make inferences about what kind of causal network links these things? You could say, for example, assuming that Brett Stevens, a conservative Wall Street columnist, negative view of the Iranian agreement is correct, how likely is it are you to observe X, Y, or Z?, he asks.
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