Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class II Part II [8.24.15]
EdgeCast
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The Dissociation of Predictions
How would we want to organize an intelligence community or any organization that has to engage in foresight? There are certainly different skillsets here that are at work. And they're not as tightly correlated as often as opposed. In your parallel world, and this is obviously something for an amortizing agency speaking, the perfect solution would be for the superforecasters to hire really good storytellers to dress up their predictions.
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