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Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class II Part II [8.24.15]

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The Merging Discipline of Question Generation

I think for tournaments to have a really positive effect on society, we need to make a very concerted effort to improve the quality of the question generation process. We would also ask you to predict whether an expert panel on Russia believes that at the end of 2016, Russia has become even more aggressive than it was in 2050. So it's sort of like a beauty contest prediction. You're predicting other people's views in the future where those views are determinant. And many, many pundits probably are. They're forecasting expertise probably is overrated. The question clustering is already in an effort to keep your order moving to relevance. What else have you done? Do you want to get a public

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