
Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class II Part II [8.24.15]
EdgeCast
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The Doomsday China China Scenario
The National Intelligence Council is responsible for creating something called Global Trends. You could take scenarios from that document and say, okay, here is a doomsday China implosion scenario by 2025. What things would we have to observe in 2016 if that scenario were true? And what would be likely to observe it were false? We are cognitively so quiet that we love stories that that's in our way.
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