Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class II Part II [8.24.15]
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The Pros and Cons of Forecasting Polls
In general, it's very hard to do any better than what Nate Silver and other meta poll analysts do. There is some historical record of voters becoming more conservative prior to major votes like that. The story about things operating may be the way to people really would like to have as a product as a story,.
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