The Joe Walker Podcast Rational Minds Part 5: Heuristics Make Us Smart - Gerd Gigerenzer
5 snips
Dec 21, 2020 AI Snips
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Episode notes
Uncertainty vs. Risk
- The world is characterized by uncertainty, not just risk, making probabilistic models limited.
- Risk involves known probabilities and outcomes, while uncertainty involves unknowns, like unforeseen events.
The Turkey Illusion
- The "turkey illusion" describes mistaking uncertainty for risk, like a turkey assuming it will always be fed.
- This illusion, using models like Bayesian updating, creates false certainty until unexpected events occur.
Natural Frequencies vs. Probabilities
- Conditional probabilities confuse people, hindering Bayesian thinking.
- Natural frequencies, representing information with counts instead of probabilities, improve understanding.