The Importance of Bayesian Inference

The Turkey missed an important piece of information. It was not in the world of rest. And probably, Turkey is all blamed about its people who commit the Turkey elotion. If you look at what happened for the last financial crisis, where the optimism increased and increased till shortly before the crisis happened. The reason are similar mathematical models being used which create an illusion of certainty until everything breaks down. So we need to be there of the Turkey illusion and take uncertainty seriously.