Hear This Idea

#50 – Doyne Farmer on Complexity and Predicting Technological Progress

Jul 15, 2022

01:26:04

Highlights

AI Chapters

Episode notes

Completion Economics - Is That a Good Idea?

02:18

Is the Modularity a Part of the Story?

01:34

Is the Great Financial Crisis a Business Cycle?

02:24

Introduction

2min

Canhave Beat the Roulette Wheel?

3min

The First Wearable Digital Computer

3min

The Roulette Project - What Did It Teach You?

6min

Is It Really Important to Understand Chaos in a Real World?

2min

Is the Great Financial Crisis a Business Cycle?

2min

Can an Economic Model Predict the Next Pendemic?

2min

Is It Possible to Make Much Better Predictions Using Mainstream Economic Models?

4min

Is There a Domino Effect?

4min

10.

I'm Going to Be Following This Kind of Puzzle to Et Almost Everyoy

4min

11.

Completion Economics - Is That a Good Idea?

2min

12.

Is There Such a Complexity in Economics?

2min

13.

Agent Base Modelling

3min

14.

How to Predict the Sun Spot Cycle?

5min

15.

How Predictable Is Technological Progress?

3min

16.

Climate Change

2min

17.

Theodore Wright's Law

4min

18.

Is the Modularity a Part of the Story?

2min

19.

How Can You Retropredict Technological Trends?

3min

20.

Can You Predict the Price of Semi Conductors?

3min

21.

Is There a Risk in Solar Power?

4min

22.

Iso, Nuclear Powera Mor What?

4min

23.

Are We Going to Get Better at Solving Problems?

6min

24.

Is There a Secular Stagnation?

2min

25.

Is There a Difference Between the Future and the Future?

2min

26.

Artificial Intelligence and Time Lines

3min

27.

Is There a Future in the Field of Economics?

3min

Professor Doyne Farmer is the Baillie Gifford Professor in Mathematics at Oxford, the Director of the Complexity Economics programme at INET, and an External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute.

In our conversation we discuss:

How Doyne and his friends used physics and hidden computers to beat the roulette wheel in Las Vegas casinos
Advancing economic models to better predict business cycles and knock-on effects from extreme events like Covid-19
Techniques for predicting technological progress and long-run growth, with specific applications to energy technologies and climate change

You can read more about the topics we cover in this episode's write-up: hearthisidea.com/episodes/farmer

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