AI-powered
podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
3min chapter
#50 – Doyne Farmer on Complexity and Predicting Technological Progress
Hear This Idea
Can You Predict the Price of Semi Conductors?
Benjamin Graham: Predictions are not very useful unless you know how accurate they will be. We can weaken qatify, a priori, how accurate the predictions from wrights law or wort law are and then use that to make probablistic predictions,. And therefore we know how accurately the predictions d. That's something we've tested on 50 technologies, making six thousand predictions, pretending we were in the past and forecasting the future. There's some lesson here, just briefly, in the ma this wot may sense but there's some kind of ucve witho accurate you can be with forecasts.
00:00
Transcript
Episode notes
Get the Snipd
podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered
Discover
highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any
moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share
& Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered
podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover
highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode