#50 – Doyne Farmer on Complexity and Predicting Technological Progress
Hear This Idea
00:00
Can You Predict the Price of Semi Conductors?
Benjamin Graham: Predictions are not very useful unless you know how accurate they will be. We can weaken qatify, a priori, how accurate the predictions from wrights law or wort law are and then use that to make probablistic predictions,. And therefore we know how accurately the predictions d. That's something we've tested on 50 technologies, making six thousand predictions, pretending we were in the past and forecasting the future. There's some lesson here, just briefly, in the ma this wot may sense but there's some kind of ucve witho accurate you can be with forecasts.
Transcript
Play full episode
