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#50 – Doyne Farmer on Complexity and Predicting Technological Progress
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Canhave Beat the Roulette Wheel?
Osan is director of complexity economics at the institute for new economic thinking. He and a friend bought a roulette wheel to see if they could use physics to beat it. They were able to place bets on three numbers that were in roughly the part of the wheel we thought the ball was likely to come to. Osan: "Our predictions were not very precise, but they were good enough" That gave us about a 20 % edge over the house, right? Right?
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