#50 – Doyne Farmer on Complexity and Predicting Technological Progress
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Is There Such a Complexity in Economics?
There are very few economists who have been using this approach, so it hasn't been properly tried. If you want to make a good model that is really accurate, ah, youve got, a, got to gather a lot of data. Ah, there's a lot of trial and error involved. Am, arcoved models, i think the first time were an agent base model made a real time prediction as we made the prediction before the stuff happened. So nobody can accuse us of being biased by seeing the answer first. A, so we made a realtime prediction that was pretty accurate at afirst.
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