#50 – Doyne Farmer on Complexity and Predicting Technological Progress
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How Can You Retropredict Technological Trends?
Some technologies, like transistors, come down to arkably smooth expedintial rate a. So you get a pretty darned accurate forecast. The forecast for solar energy is not as accurate as ta forecast for transitors, because it follows a wigglier path as it goes along. But long range, you know, you draw a line through forty or 15 years of data, is pretty steady. And in fact, by doing that, i made a forecast that was published in nature, that a solar enegine was going to be cheaper than coal fire electricity by 20 20.
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