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#50 – Doyne Farmer on Complexity and Predicting Technological Progress
Hear This Idea
Is It Possible to Make Much Better Predictions Using Mainstream Economic Models?
Main stream economic models did some version of this, but they would typically couple a an a standard a epidemiological model. So we had a model with 56 industries. And so we could then predict how much each industry would be shut down as a result of people not being able to come to work. We predicted a 21 and a half % drop in g d p in the second quarter of 20 20. What was observed was a 22 point one percent drop in g D P. That's right. The tales agn fairly thin. But when you do this thing where you're taking complexity in chaos seriously,you begin to appreciate something you might call systemic risk.
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