80,000 Hours Podcast #200 – Ezra Karger on what superforecasters and experts think about existential risks
65 snips
Sep 4, 2024 
Ezra Karger, research director at the Forecasting Research Institute and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, discusses the complexities of forecasting existential risks like AI and nuclear conflict. He shares insights from the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament, where predictions from experts and superforecasters revealed striking disparities in extinction probabilities. Karger emphasizes the importance of clear reference points for informed discussions and highlights the need for better forecasting methods to navigate uncertain futures involving advanced technology.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
XPT Overview
- The Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT) provides estimates of catastrophic risks.
- It surveys experts, superforecasters, and the public using innovative methods.
Pre-XPT Risk Estimates
- Before the XPT, estimates of existential risks were scarce and unsystematic.
- Toby Ord's 'The Precipice' offered individual forecasts, but a broader, systematic approach was needed.
Importance of Precise Definitions
- Precise definitions are crucial for discussing complex topics like AI risk.
- The XPT used detailed definitions to facilitate productive discussion and comparison of forecasts.
