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#200 – Ezra Karger on what superforecasters and experts think about existential risks

80,000 Hours Podcast

CHAPTER

Forecasting Existential Risks

This chapter explores the methods for accurately gathering forecasts on existential risks from experts, emphasizing the need for effective incentives to promote truthful and accurate predictions. It also examines the effectiveness of superforecasters and the benefits of utilizing both incentivized and unincentivized forecasts to enhance understanding in this critical area.

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