22min chapter

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#200 – Ezra Karger on what superforecasters and experts think about existential risks

80,000 Hours Podcast

CHAPTER

Contrasting Forecasts: Superforecasters vs. Experts

This chapter examines the differences in risk assessments for existential threats, particularly in AI, between superforecasters and domain experts. It explores the implications of these differences on policy-making and the reliability of various forecasting approaches. The conversation emphasizes the challenges of evaluating predictions in uncertain environments and the dynamics of consensus among experts with divergent beliefs.

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