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#200 – Ezra Karger on what superforecasters and experts think about existential risks

80,000 Hours Podcast

CHAPTER

Contrasting Views on Existential Risks

This chapter explores the differing assessments of existential risks to humanity, particularly the likelihood of extinction by 2100, as predicted by domain experts and super forecasters. It reveals a significant disparity in their forecasts, with experts estimating a 6% chance of extinction and super forecasters only 1%. The discussion also highlights the complexities and nuances in understanding various catastrophic scenarios, emphasizing the importance of diverse perspectives and methodologies in predicting low-probability events.

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