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#200 – Ezra Karger on what superforecasters and experts think about existential risks

80,000 Hours Podcast

CHAPTER

Forecasts and Risks of Advanced AI

This chapter explores predictions made by domain experts and superforecasters regarding the arrival of advanced AI, with differing timelines and associated risks. While there is consensus on significant advancements in AI over the next two decades, a stark contrast emerges in forecasts about its impact on economic growth. The discussion highlights the complexities of correlating these predictions with long-term societal implications and emphasizes the necessity for collective strategies to address potential challenges.

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