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#200 – Ezra Karger on what superforecasters and experts think about existential risks

80,000 Hours Podcast

CHAPTER

Navigating Uncertainty in Forecasting

This chapter examines how public perceptions of existential risks are influenced by the framing of questions and the provision of reference probabilities. Through a comparison of public risk assessments with those of experts and super forecasters, the discussion reveals surprising similarities and highlights the challenges of accurately forecasting low probability events. The speakers emphasize the importance of elicitation methods to improve forecasting accuracy and the broader implications for decision-making in the face of uncertainty.

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