22min chapter

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#200 – Ezra Karger on what superforecasters and experts think about existential risks

80,000 Hours Podcast

CHAPTER

Crucial Cruxes: Navigating AI Risks

This chapter explores pivotal questions, or 'cruxes', that shape forecasting related to existential risks from AI, examining shifts in beliefs among researchers by 2030. It contrasts the perspectives of risk skeptics and superforecasters on global stability and democratic processes in light of major geopolitical events. The discussion also highlights the challenges of integrating accurate forecasts into decision-making and the evolving role of AI in this dynamic field.

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