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#200 – Ezra Karger on what superforecasters and experts think about existential risks

80,000 Hours Podcast

CHAPTER

Forecasting Existential Risks: Insights and Innovations

This chapter explores the motivations behind a forecasting tournament on existential risks organized by the Forecasting Research Institute. It emphasizes the significance of collecting systematic data from diverse participants to enhance understanding of threats like nuclear war and artificial intelligence in the wake of events such as the COVID-19 pandemic. The dialogue highlights the structured process of gathering forecasts, comparisons between expert predictions, and the importance of clear definitions in facilitating informed discussions on these critical global issues.

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