Global Data Pod

Abiel Reinhart, a member of JPMorgan's U.S. economics team, dives into the recent surge in tech investment and its influence on U.S. GDP growth. He reveals that tech spending accounted for a significant portion of growth in early 2025, but cautions that this rate may not last into 2026. Discussions cover the implications of mismeasuring tech investments, the impact of AI on productivity, and how U.S. imports benefit certain countries like Taiwan. Abiel also addresses the discrepancy in payroll growth and forecasts a slower pace for future capex despite high spending.

Explore the intriguing dynamics of global growth as speakers dissect labor market risks and the Federal Reserve's recent policy shifts. The conversation highlights the paradox of weak job growth amidst strong GDP and profits. Listeners will be captivated by insights into how Fed cuts might influence emerging markets and the potential fallout from China's slowdown. Don't miss the thoughtful prediction on upcoming economic indicators as the hosts tie everything together in a compelling wrap-up.

Dive into the dynamic global economy as experts discuss the resilience of expansion and the puzzling health of the labor market. Discover how unexpected strength in the capital goods sector contrasts with declining job growth. Concerns over inflation's impact on consumer confidence are paramount, alongside the effects of tariffs on spending. The conversation veers into the intricate relationship between economic performance and unemployment, with forecasts hinting at global growth challenges ahead. Get ready for insightful analysis and predictions!

The podcast dives into the latest economic data, highlighting a clash between strong growth signals and concerns about labor market slowdowns. Discussions reveal complexities in the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategies amidst shifting economic indicators. There’s an examination of the disconnect between tariff revenues and consumer spending, alongside impacts from recent immigration trends. The analysis extends to contrasting growth forecasts and the challenges of predicting the economic landscape, all wrapped up with a light-hearted look at future meetings.

Explore the surprising resilience of the global economy despite a softening U.S. labor market and ongoing trade challenges. Delve into the Federal Reserve's balancing act between independence and inflation, and the implications for future policies. Discover how businesses are adjusting to rising pressures and what this means for potential growth trajectories. Historical perspectives shed light on market reactions to crises, while worries about stagnation loom large for regions like Europe and Japan, contrasting with tech advancements in Asia.

Explore the challenges facing the global economy as industry stalls amid a trade war and softening capital expenditure. Discover the pressures on US consumers and the implications of high interest rates on demand. The Federal Reserve's potential shift towards easing and the risks posed by political influences on its independence are also discussed. Lastly, discover the contrasting economic performances between the euro area and strong Asian markets, highlighting the complex landscape of global industrial trends.

In this enlightening discussion, Tingting Ge, a Greater China Economist at J.P. Morgan, delves into China's shifting role in global inflation dynamics. She explores the effects of renewed U.S. tariffs, highlighting how they haven't led to expected price drops among Chinese exporters. The conversation also tackles China's excess capacity, government strategies to boost consumption, and the nuanced impacts of currency fluctuations on global markets. Join them as they unpack these complexities and their implications for the future.

The podcast dives into unexpected resilience in the economy, analyzing surprising GDP readings and their implications for second-half forecasts. Experts discuss mixed signals from the labor market, like rising wages amidst slowing job growth, and how these factors might affect Federal Reserve decisions. The complexities of consumer spending amidst inflation concerns are examined, alongside the impact of trade wars on economic predictions. Lastly, the discussion highlights ongoing inflation trends and their potential influence on central bank interest rates.

Jahangir Aziz, Head of EM Economics at JPMorgan Research, dives into the sluggish capital flows into emerging markets. Aziz discusses how geopolitical factors and rising U.S. Treasury yields are reshaping investment dynamics. He highlights the waning influence of the dollar as a catalyst for inflows, while stressing the need for EMs to showcase their growth potential. The impact of China as both an attractor and substitute for broader capital flows is examined, alongside the need for stability in EMs to weather economic shocks.

The latest trade developments suggest tariffs might stabilize around 22%, yet global growth appears resilient. Discussions on recession risks highlight shifting perceptions, emphasizing the impact of central banks and labor market dynamics on economic predictions. The effects of tariffs on various sectors, especially automotive and manufacturing, are examined, revealing complexities in measuring their true economic impact. Amid ongoing trade tensions, expert insights tackle how financial conditions and market adaptability might shape future economic forecasts.