Global Data Pod Global Data Pod Research Rap: The growth effects of AI capex
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Sep 23, 2025 Abiel Reinhart, a member of JPMorgan's U.S. economics team, dives into the recent surge in tech investment and its influence on U.S. GDP growth. He reveals that tech spending accounted for a significant portion of growth in early 2025, but cautions that this rate may not last into 2026. Discussions cover the implications of mismeasuring tech investments, the impact of AI on productivity, and how U.S. imports benefit certain countries like Taiwan. Abiel also addresses the discrepancy in payroll growth and forecasts a slower pace for future capex despite high spending.
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AI CapEx Drove A Big Share Of H1 Growth
- AI-related data center, equipment, and software investment added about 0.5 percentage points to US GDP growth in H1 2025.
- That equals roughly one-third of headline growth given a 1.4% annualized pace over the same period.
Imports Trim Measured GDP Impact
- A large share of tech spending is imported, so headline spending overstates the GDP contribution.
- AI CapEx contributed ~1.3% to domestic final sales but only ~0.5% to measured GDP because of imports.
Software Deflator Swings Skew Growth Signals
- Software's price swings distort measured investment growth across years and quarters.
- Smoothing software deflators reduces the apparent acceleration to about 0.2–0.3 percentage points overall.