Global Data Pod

Anatoliy Shal is an economist who focuses on Uzbekistan's structural reforms and macroeconomic growth, while Khamza Sharifzoda specializes in Kazakhstan's monetary policy and debt markets. They discuss Uzbekistan's reform-driven growth and gold export boost, attracting investor interest. Khamza highlights Kazakhstan’s rising local bond market and improved policy credibility. The pair also tackle inflation dynamics, fiscal risks, and the overall outlook for 2026, offering insights into regional economic stability and potential challenges ahead.

This week delves into the intriguing dynamics of U.S. economic growth and labor market signals. The hosts discuss how resilient business investments contrast with signs of a weakening workforce. They evaluate the implications of recent payroll data and mixed claims ahead of the Fed's decisions. Insights on Asian market upgrades and tech capital expenditures provide a global perspective. They also consider risks in consumer spending and the potential for unequal wealth impacts. All these elements paint a complex picture of economic trends moving forward.

This lively discussion tackles the 'tick-tock' dynamic of economic resilience versus labor market weakness. Speakers delve into the Fed's need for fresh data amid uncertainty and the global implications of job growth trends. They explore the tech-driven growth narrative, raising questions about sustainability and the concentration of improvements in certain sectors. The conversation also touches on China's economic challenges and the role of global fiscal policies in shaping prospects. Insights on the distribution of benefits from fiscal measures make for a thought-provoking dialogue.

Joseph Lupton, an economist at J.P. Morgan, shares keen insights on the precarious state of the U.S. labor market amidst a potential shutdown. He discusses the resilience of global growth signals, contrasting mixed U.S. labor indicators with stronger performances abroad. Delving into the implications of evolving tariff laws, Lupton highlights risks to trade policy and Fed independence. The conversation explores whether tech-driven investments will truly translate to job growth, all while navigating the murky waters of a potential recession.

Michael Hanson, Senior U.S. and Canada Economist, joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss crucial insights on U.S. inflation trends amid tariff pressures. They highlight the persistent 3% inflation globally and explore how tariffs are driving up U.S. prices, with estimates suggesting core CPI could rise by 1–1.5 percentage points. The conversation touches on the timing of inflation peaks, the contrasting inflation dynamics in the U.S. versus the rest of the world, and the challenges firms face in absorbing these costs. A thought-provoking analysis on policy implications for central banks unfolds.

Gbolahan (Bola) Taiwo, Chief Economist for Africa at JPMorgan, dives into the revitalization of African economies post-pandemic. He discusses key reforms across nations like Nigeria and Uganda, emphasizing how fiscal and monetary adjustments are paving the way for improved financial stability. Highlights include Nigeria's subsidy reforms, Angola's oil dependency, and Egypt's capital inflows fueled by strategic investments. The conversation sheds light on how these developments are reshaping investor confidence and strengthening economic resilience across the continent.

Joseph Lupton, a senior macro economist, breaks down the latest growth risks and their impact on inflation and central bank policies. He discusses how a recent government shutdown could potentially trigger a contraction in the labor market. Joe highlights rebounds in global industries and warns that sustained growth might reignite inflation, particularly in the service sector. He debates the implications of AI investment and examines how tariffs and immigration policies could drag on economic activity. The conversation winds down with insights on the recent U.S.-China meeting and its trade implications.

Join the engaging discussion as experts delve into the conflicting narratives of global growth—one leans towards resilience while the other warns of slowdown. They explore the crucial role of labor markets and debate whether consumers will dip into savings amid potential purchasing power shocks. The duo analyzes various growth scenarios for the U.S. and considers if fiscal policies could spark surprising growth. Plus, they assess the impact of U.S.-China tensions and the looming question of stickier inflation. Stay tuned for insights on upcoming economic indicators.

The discussion dives into the asymmetrical risks posed by the US versus the rest of the world, highlighting a low floor and high ceiling for the US economy. Fiscal policies are examined for their effectiveness amid global challenges. Manufacturing weaknesses and trade wars shape current growth, while client perspectives suggest that a mild slowdown could lead to Fed cuts. Debates around consumer spending reveal how labor market dynamics impact household purchasing power, demonstrating the complex interplay of macroeconomic factors.

The US government shutdown is creating significant gaps in economic data, hindering assessments of growth. While PMIs exhibit resilience, employment signals a concerning stall in global job growth. There's an intriguing debate over the sustainability of the recent surge in US consumer spending amid changing labor trends. The Fed appears likely to implement insurance cuts, balancing risks in a complex global outlook. The discussion also highlights the fading impact of tech growth on regional manufacturing and the nuanced trajectories of inflation.