Global Data Pod

The podcast delves into the resilient growth of the global economy in early 2023, despite lingering recession fears. It highlights the impact of trade tariffs on consumer sentiment and the complex interplay of financial indicators. Discussions reveal how companies are adapting their pricing strategies in response to market shocks. The balancing act faced by the Federal Reserve in addressing inflation while promoting employment is explored. Lastly, insights into consumer spending trends underline a disconnect between consistent spending and declining sentiment.

Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton dive into the resilience of current economic activity against a backdrop of potential policy upheaval. They examine the delicate balance between labor market strength and the risks of soft growth, especially with looming trade tensions. Tax implications for various businesses are scrutinized, particularly for those reliant on imports. The duo also navigates supply chain complexities and highlights the Federal Reserve's ongoing challenges, blending insightful analysis with humor as they confront the uncertainties of the economic landscape.

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss key takeaways from the latest Global Inflation monitor and the impact of tariffs on inflation in the US and the rest of the world. After a broad-based upside surprise in January, core inflation has shown a similar widespread moderation. The US CPI data show limited impact from tariffs through March, but we look for core inflation to jump to a 6%ar this quarter and next. At the same time, inflationary impulses in the rest of the world appear tilted to the downside; a pullback in US front-loading demand along with a decoupling of US-China trade should put downward pressure on goods prices as excess supply is redirected elsewhere. Absent a meaningful retaliation, we see core inflation outside the US moderating to 2.5-3%ar over 2H25. This podcast was recorded on April 30, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4966015-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4956489-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4960640-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures  for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The speakers dive into the current economic landscape, highlighting concerns about a potential U.S. recession and its implications. They discuss the shift from robust hard data to worrying soft indicators, revealing pressures from trade tensions, especially between the U.S. and China. The podcast outlines the complexities of international negotiations and their potential economic repercussions. Furthermore, it explores how a U.S. recession might impact global financial systems, emphasizing interconnections that could either cushion or exacerbate vulnerabilities.

China economists Haibin Zhu and TingTing Ge join Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the impact of a 100%+ US tariff rate on China's cost competitiveness on the US market and the scope for US-China trade to decouple as a result. With recent tariff hikes on China going well beyond our expectations of a hike to 60% ,we also discuss our latest assessment of the associated drags on China’s growth and what policymakers might do to mitigate the trade shock.  This podcast was recorded on April 24, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4958251-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton dive into the booming goods sector, yet caution around recession looms. They debate the potential fallout of increasing tariffs and the mixed signals from economic indicators. The impact of tax policy on GDP is scrutinized, alongside the unique challenges facing small businesses. They discuss global sentiment shifts and the squeezing effect of geopolitical tensions, particularly from the Ukraine conflict, on the economy. Overall, the conversation captures a landscape rich in uncertainty and complexity.

Jahangir Aziz, an economist with a focus on the Asian economy and global trade, joins the conversation to dissect the ramifications of recent U.S.-China tariff policies. He emphasizes that a massive 10% universal tax and soaring tariffs on China could spell trouble for global trade stability. Aziz warns of a looming recession, discussing the intricate dynamics of international supply chains and fiscal support in China. The dialogue also touches on geopolitical tensions reshaping economic forecasts, particularly the challenges facing emerging markets.

The discussion highlights a serious shift in U.S. economic policy, raising recession odds to 60%. Analysts emphasize the confusing nature of recent tariff practices and their harmful long-term impacts on businesses. There's a critical look at heightened tax burdens and their negative effects on consumer sentiment. The conversation also touches on potential changes in consumer behavior amid economic pressures and the Federal Reserve's response to inflation and credit conditions. Overall, a deep dive into the intricate web of trade relationships and policy challenges unfolds.

Our baseline forecast incorporates sustained expansion but recession risks have become elevated – to a 40% probability – on concerns that aggressive US policies hit business and household sentiment. With the latest tariff increases set to push US core inflation above 4%ar next quarter, a household sector with a healthy balance will need to show a willingness to lower its saving rate to cushion this blow.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 28 March 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Nora Szentivanyi joins Bruce Kasman to discuss key takeaways from the latest Global Inflation Monitor and how the incoming data and tariff news are shaping our inflation views. Global goods prices are firming even before tariffs were put in place, with pressures broadening outside the US. As more tariffs are imposed, this puts the onus on still-sticky services inflation to do much of the heavy lifting in getting inflation down.  We retain our sticky global core inflation view and see upside risks to our forecast for global core inflation to moderate to below 3%ar in coming quarter. Beneath this sticky inflation perspective, we continue to see scope for greater diversity in inflation outcomes across countries. This podcast was recorded on March 26, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4943283-0 ,  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4795397-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.