Global Data Pod

Explore the challenges facing the global economy as industry stalls amid a trade war and softening capital expenditure. Discover the pressures on US consumers and the implications of high interest rates on demand. The Federal Reserve's potential shift towards easing and the risks posed by political influences on its independence are also discussed. Lastly, discover the contrasting economic performances between the euro area and strong Asian markets, highlighting the complex landscape of global industrial trends.

In this enlightening discussion, Tingting Ge, a Greater China Economist at J.P. Morgan, delves into China's shifting role in global inflation dynamics. She explores the effects of renewed U.S. tariffs, highlighting how they haven't led to expected price drops among Chinese exporters. The conversation also tackles China's excess capacity, government strategies to boost consumption, and the nuanced impacts of currency fluctuations on global markets. Join them as they unpack these complexities and their implications for the future.

The podcast dives into unexpected resilience in the economy, analyzing surprising GDP readings and their implications for second-half forecasts. Experts discuss mixed signals from the labor market, like rising wages amidst slowing job growth, and how these factors might affect Federal Reserve decisions. The complexities of consumer spending amidst inflation concerns are examined, alongside the impact of trade wars on economic predictions. Lastly, the discussion highlights ongoing inflation trends and their potential influence on central bank interest rates.

Jahangir Aziz, Head of EM Economics at JPMorgan Research, dives into the sluggish capital flows into emerging markets. Aziz discusses how geopolitical factors and rising U.S. Treasury yields are reshaping investment dynamics. He highlights the waning influence of the dollar as a catalyst for inflows, while stressing the need for EMs to showcase their growth potential. The impact of China as both an attractor and substitute for broader capital flows is examined, alongside the need for stability in EMs to weather economic shocks.

The latest trade developments suggest tariffs might stabilize around 22%, yet global growth appears resilient. Discussions on recession risks highlight shifting perceptions, emphasizing the impact of central banks and labor market dynamics on economic predictions. The effects of tariffs on various sectors, especially automotive and manufacturing, are examined, revealing complexities in measuring their true economic impact. Amid ongoing trade tensions, expert insights tackle how financial conditions and market adaptability might shape future economic forecasts.

Delve into the complexities of inflation and the unique challenges facing central banks globally. Learn how the Fed navigates the tricky waters of high inflation amid political pressures. Explore the dynamics of inflation trends in various regions and their impacts on growth. Examine the rapid expansion in tech and pharma industries and their economic implications. Lastly, get insights into predictions for the core Consumer Price Index and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, amid ongoing economic uncertainty.

Michael Hanson, a Senior Global Economist at J.P. Morgan Global Research, joins to unpack the latest June CPI reports. The conversation reveals a stubborn global core inflation rate around 3%, influenced by unexpected gains in service prices, particularly outside Asia. They discuss the effects of tariffs on U.S. consumer prices, the complexities of vehicle pricing, and the implications for Fed policy as interest rates are anticipated to shift in late 2025. Insights into the broader economic landscape and its impact on global inflation trends are also explored.

The discussion dives into the current slowdown of the U.S. economy, revealing consumer behavior and employment trends. Tariffs and inflation create intricate challenges, affecting prices and fiscal policies. Recent economic shocks have left households and businesses vulnerable, with immigration policies adding further complexity. The podcast also navigates the implications of immigrant workers on economic growth, highlighting legal challenges and potential job losses. It’s a dynamic exploration of economic realities and their unforeseen impacts.

The conversation dives into an anticipated stagflationary shift in the economy, highlighting a drop in global GDP growth and rising inflation due to US tariffs. Market signals suggest a surprising optimism around potential Fed easing amid softening labor conditions. The hosts banter about oil prices and geopolitical tensions, while analyzing the outlook for 2026-2027, balancing caution and resilience. Tariff impacts on Asian trade dynamics are explored, specifically between China and its neighbors, adding complexity to the future economic landscape.

Anticipated global growth slowdown and evolving inflation dynamics are examined, influenced by trade wars and Middle Eastern tensions. The speakers discuss mixed economic indicators and their implications for central bank policies. They highlight the resilience of market dynamics despite overarching economic weaknesses, alongside the balancing act faced by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. Additionally, insights into PMI trends reveal contrasting economic performances across regions, providing a comprehensive view of the current economic landscape.