Global Data Pod

Join the engaging discussion as experts delve into the conflicting narratives of global growth—one leans towards resilience while the other warns of slowdown. They explore the crucial role of labor markets and debate whether consumers will dip into savings amid potential purchasing power shocks. The duo analyzes various growth scenarios for the U.S. and considers if fiscal policies could spark surprising growth. Plus, they assess the impact of U.S.-China tensions and the looming question of stickier inflation. Stay tuned for insights on upcoming economic indicators.

The discussion dives into the asymmetrical risks posed by the US versus the rest of the world, highlighting a low floor and high ceiling for the US economy. Fiscal policies are examined for their effectiveness amid global challenges. Manufacturing weaknesses and trade wars shape current growth, while client perspectives suggest that a mild slowdown could lead to Fed cuts. Debates around consumer spending reveal how labor market dynamics impact household purchasing power, demonstrating the complex interplay of macroeconomic factors.

The US government shutdown is creating significant gaps in economic data, hindering assessments of growth. While PMIs exhibit resilience, employment signals a concerning stall in global job growth. There's an intriguing debate over the sustainability of the recent surge in US consumer spending amid changing labor trends. The Fed appears likely to implement insurance cuts, balancing risks in a complex global outlook. The discussion also highlights the fading impact of tech growth on regional manufacturing and the nuanced trajectories of inflation.

Joe Lupton, a macroeconomist renowned for his insights on consumption and labor markets, joins the discussion on global growth dynamics. They explore why GDP is strong despite dismal job growth, examining the puzzling disconnect. Lupton delves into the factors driving resilient US consumer spending and the risks ahead with declining labor income. They also assess the impact of AI on job creation and productivity, and ponder how central banks should respond to this mixed economic landscape, including potential effects of a US government shutdown.

Nora Szentivanyi chats with Raphael Brun-Aguerre, an economist and policy analyst focused on euro-area inflation and wages. They dissect the latest CPI reports, highlighting persistent core inflation and its global impact on services. Raphael explains the dynamics of euro-area services and wage pressures, while discussing tariff effects on core goods and the influence of China. They also explore fluctuations in energy prices and their implications for inflation, along with the significance of food inflation in monetary policy decisions.

Abiel Reinhart, a member of JPMorgan's U.S. economics team, dives into the recent surge in tech investment and its influence on U.S. GDP growth. He reveals that tech spending accounted for a significant portion of growth in early 2025, but cautions that this rate may not last into 2026. Discussions cover the implications of mismeasuring tech investments, the impact of AI on productivity, and how U.S. imports benefit certain countries like Taiwan. Abiel also addresses the discrepancy in payroll growth and forecasts a slower pace for future capex despite high spending.

Explore the intriguing dynamics of global growth as speakers dissect labor market risks and the Federal Reserve's recent policy shifts. The conversation highlights the paradox of weak job growth amidst strong GDP and profits. Listeners will be captivated by insights into how Fed cuts might influence emerging markets and the potential fallout from China's slowdown. Don't miss the thoughtful prediction on upcoming economic indicators as the hosts tie everything together in a compelling wrap-up.

Dive into the dynamic global economy as experts discuss the resilience of expansion and the puzzling health of the labor market. Discover how unexpected strength in the capital goods sector contrasts with declining job growth. Concerns over inflation's impact on consumer confidence are paramount, alongside the effects of tariffs on spending. The conversation veers into the intricate relationship between economic performance and unemployment, with forecasts hinting at global growth challenges ahead. Get ready for insightful analysis and predictions!

The podcast dives into the latest economic data, highlighting a clash between strong growth signals and concerns about labor market slowdowns. Discussions reveal complexities in the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategies amidst shifting economic indicators. There’s an examination of the disconnect between tariff revenues and consumer spending, alongside impacts from recent immigration trends. The analysis extends to contrasting growth forecasts and the challenges of predicting the economic landscape, all wrapped up with a light-hearted look at future meetings.

Explore the surprising resilience of the global economy despite a softening U.S. labor market and ongoing trade challenges. Delve into the Federal Reserve's balancing act between independence and inflation, and the implications for future policies. Discover how businesses are adjusting to rising pressures and what this means for potential growth trajectories. Historical perspectives shed light on market reactions to crises, while worries about stagnation loom large for regions like Europe and Japan, contrasting with tech advancements in Asia.