Global Data Pod

Exploring the resilience of the global economy, the discussion highlights a blend of strong job growth and emerging weaknesses in manufacturing. Using a hurricane metaphor, the hosts navigate the mixed economic signals, balancing cautious optimism with looming recession risks. They delve into consumer behavior, emphasizing increased savings amidst uncertainty, and analyze the intricate relationship between inflation and purchasing power. The podcast offers insights into how regional conditions are shaping the economic landscape and what to watch for in the second half of 2025.

The podcast dives into the overstated hopes for a legal resolution to the US trade war, emphasizing the risk of increased tariffs. Economic growth remains uncertain, influenced by prior front-loading and resilience tracking debates. The potential for weakness could signal various outcomes, from recession to rebound, complicating Federal Reserve strategies. Listeners will find insights into tariff implications, manufacturing trends, and the delicate balance of economic indicators shaping the future landscape.

The discussion opens with the shifting economic landscape influenced by trade policies and tariffs. Speakers delve into recent global indicators, highlighting the resilience of the manufacturing sector despite uncertainties. They analyze GDP growth complexities and the challenges of forecasting recession risks amid policy changes. Fiscal policies come under scrutiny, particularly regarding Congress's spending decisions and their impact on economic growth. Lastly, the podcast highlights the historical context of structural deficits, urging a reassessment of fiscal responsibility in today's climate.

Recent U.S. policy shifts have sparked discussions about tariff reductions on China and their impact on growth forecasts. The hosts explore the delicate balance of trade negotiations and the risks of potential tariff increases. Economic uncertainties are dissected, with debates about mild recession indicators and the influence of fiscal stimulus. Inflation trends and the Federal Reserve's struggles to meet targets are also examined. Finally, a potential reversal in data trends is anticipated, especially regarding sentiment metrics in the U.S. recession landscape.

The podcast delves into the resilient growth of the global economy in early 2023, despite lingering recession fears. It highlights the impact of trade tariffs on consumer sentiment and the complex interplay of financial indicators. Discussions reveal how companies are adapting their pricing strategies in response to market shocks. The balancing act faced by the Federal Reserve in addressing inflation while promoting employment is explored. Lastly, insights into consumer spending trends underline a disconnect between consistent spending and declining sentiment.

Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton dive into the resilience of current economic activity against a backdrop of potential policy upheaval. They examine the delicate balance between labor market strength and the risks of soft growth, especially with looming trade tensions. Tax implications for various businesses are scrutinized, particularly for those reliant on imports. The duo also navigates supply chain complexities and highlights the Federal Reserve's ongoing challenges, blending insightful analysis with humor as they confront the uncertainties of the economic landscape.

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss key takeaways from the latest Global Inflation monitor and the impact of tariffs on inflation in the US and the rest of the world. After a broad-based upside surprise in January, core inflation has shown a similar widespread moderation. The US CPI data show limited impact from tariffs through March, but we look for core inflation to jump to a 6%ar this quarter and next. At the same time, inflationary impulses in the rest of the world appear tilted to the downside; a pullback in US front-loading demand along with a decoupling of US-China trade should put downward pressure on goods prices as excess supply is redirected elsewhere. Absent a meaningful retaliation, we see core inflation outside the US moderating to 2.5-3%ar over 2H25. This podcast was recorded on April 30, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4966015-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4956489-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4960640-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures  for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The speakers dive into the current economic landscape, highlighting concerns about a potential U.S. recession and its implications. They discuss the shift from robust hard data to worrying soft indicators, revealing pressures from trade tensions, especially between the U.S. and China. The podcast outlines the complexities of international negotiations and their potential economic repercussions. Furthermore, it explores how a U.S. recession might impact global financial systems, emphasizing interconnections that could either cushion or exacerbate vulnerabilities.

China economists Haibin Zhu and TingTing Ge join Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the impact of a 100%+ US tariff rate on China's cost competitiveness on the US market and the scope for US-China trade to decouple as a result. With recent tariff hikes on China going well beyond our expectations of a hike to 60% ,we also discuss our latest assessment of the associated drags on China’s growth and what policymakers might do to mitigate the trade shock.  This podcast was recorded on April 24, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4958251-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton dive into the booming goods sector, yet caution around recession looms. They debate the potential fallout of increasing tariffs and the mixed signals from economic indicators. The impact of tax policy on GDP is scrutinized, alongside the unique challenges facing small businesses. They discuss global sentiment shifts and the squeezing effect of geopolitical tensions, particularly from the Ukraine conflict, on the economy. Overall, the conversation captures a landscape rich in uncertainty and complexity.