Global Data Pod

The latest trade developments suggest tariffs might stabilize around 22%, yet global growth appears resilient. Discussions on recession risks highlight shifting perceptions, emphasizing the impact of central banks and labor market dynamics on economic predictions. The effects of tariffs on various sectors, especially automotive and manufacturing, are examined, revealing complexities in measuring their true economic impact. Amid ongoing trade tensions, expert insights tackle how financial conditions and market adaptability might shape future economic forecasts.

Delve into the complexities of inflation and the unique challenges facing central banks globally. Learn how the Fed navigates the tricky waters of high inflation amid political pressures. Explore the dynamics of inflation trends in various regions and their impacts on growth. Examine the rapid expansion in tech and pharma industries and their economic implications. Lastly, get insights into predictions for the core Consumer Price Index and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, amid ongoing economic uncertainty.

Michael Hanson, a Senior Global Economist at J.P. Morgan Global Research, joins to unpack the latest June CPI reports. The conversation reveals a stubborn global core inflation rate around 3%, influenced by unexpected gains in service prices, particularly outside Asia. They discuss the effects of tariffs on U.S. consumer prices, the complexities of vehicle pricing, and the implications for Fed policy as interest rates are anticipated to shift in late 2025. Insights into the broader economic landscape and its impact on global inflation trends are also explored.

The discussion dives into the current slowdown of the U.S. economy, revealing consumer behavior and employment trends. Tariffs and inflation create intricate challenges, affecting prices and fiscal policies. Recent economic shocks have left households and businesses vulnerable, with immigration policies adding further complexity. The podcast also navigates the implications of immigrant workers on economic growth, highlighting legal challenges and potential job losses. It’s a dynamic exploration of economic realities and their unforeseen impacts.

The conversation dives into an anticipated stagflationary shift in the economy, highlighting a drop in global GDP growth and rising inflation due to US tariffs. Market signals suggest a surprising optimism around potential Fed easing amid softening labor conditions. The hosts banter about oil prices and geopolitical tensions, while analyzing the outlook for 2026-2027, balancing caution and resilience. Tariff impacts on Asian trade dynamics are explored, specifically between China and its neighbors, adding complexity to the future economic landscape.

Anticipated global growth slowdown and evolving inflation dynamics are examined, influenced by trade wars and Middle Eastern tensions. The speakers discuss mixed economic indicators and their implications for central bank policies. They highlight the resilience of market dynamics despite overarching economic weaknesses, alongside the balancing act faced by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. Additionally, insights into PMI trends reveal contrasting economic performances across regions, providing a comprehensive view of the current economic landscape.

Explore the shifting global economy as experts discuss the signs of a growth slowdown influenced by the trade war. Delve into industrial production trends, highlighting regional disparities and spending impacts. Unpack consumer behavior and the surprising role of savings amid economic uncertainty. Discover how tariffs affect inflation and the goods sector differently across Europe and Asia. The conversation also addresses inventory dynamics, pricing strategies, and the resilience of households in navigating these challenges.

In this enlightening discussion, Michael Hanson, a sharp economist specializing in US and Canada analyses at J.P. Morgan, joins Raphael Brun-Aguerre, an expert on Euro-area economic trends. They delve into how May's softer inflation might not last, with tariffs pushing US core inflation to rise. The duo also explores the Euro area's promising shift toward a stable 2% core HICP, examining trade dynamics and geopolitical influences on global inflation. Expect insights on the disinflationary effects of US trade policy and central bank responses amid ever-evolving economic landscapes.

Exploring the resilience of the global economy, the discussion highlights a blend of strong job growth and emerging weaknesses in manufacturing. Using a hurricane metaphor, the hosts navigate the mixed economic signals, balancing cautious optimism with looming recession risks. They delve into consumer behavior, emphasizing increased savings amidst uncertainty, and analyze the intricate relationship between inflation and purchasing power. The podcast offers insights into how regional conditions are shaping the economic landscape and what to watch for in the second half of 2025.

The podcast dives into the overstated hopes for a legal resolution to the US trade war, emphasizing the risk of increased tariffs. Economic growth remains uncertain, influenced by prior front-loading and resilience tracking debates. The potential for weakness could signal various outcomes, from recession to rebound, complicating Federal Reserve strategies. Listeners will find insights into tariff implications, manufacturing trends, and the delicate balance of economic indicators shaping the future landscape.