Global Data Pod

Consumer spending shows resilience, but hiring is crucial for sustaining growth. Recent U.S. policies may be a double-edged sword, potentially disrupting confidence. Tariffs continue to cloud inflation forecasts, raising the stakes for 2026. The hosts debate whether current measures are genuinely pro-growth or just political noise. With shifting recession risks and inflation signals, the Fed's independence and future actions hang in the balance as they monitor early indicators of economic activity.

The discussion kicks off with the analysis of tech-led business spending versus cautious investment, highlighting weak labor demand. Concerns emerge over last year's narrow growth and the need for a shift toward more balanced, employment-driven expansion. Despite strong consumer spending, job growth remains an enigma. They delve into the Fed's potential reactions to inflation signals and the diverging inflation patterns across regions. The hosts also explore Asia's tech influence and the implications of upcoming economic data.

Michael Hanson, Senior U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan, and Raphael Brun-Aguerre, Senior Euro area economist, explore upcoming inflation trends. They discuss how global core inflation has dropped to 2.1% and ponder whether this disinflation will stick around. Hanson delves into U.S. CPI data influenced by the government shutdown, while Brun-Aguerre highlights Europe’s wage trends impacting inflation. The duo also examines the implications of tariffs and trade dynamics on both sides of the Atlantic, plus the risk of AI-related price shifts.

The discussion kicks off with a look at recent mixed data and a surprisingly positive outlook, fueled by a rebound in hiring. Notably, they dive into the effects of immigration on growth and the looming challenges posed by healthcare costs. Concerns about rising health insurance premiums and their potential impact on inflation for 2026 take center stage. The hosts engage in a spirited debate over the U.S. economy's potential to achieve 3% growth, weighing the tight labor supply against robust demand.

Anatoliy Shal is an economist who focuses on Uzbekistan's structural reforms and macroeconomic growth, while Khamza Sharifzoda specializes in Kazakhstan's monetary policy and debt markets. They discuss Uzbekistan's reform-driven growth and gold export boost, attracting investor interest. Khamza highlights Kazakhstan’s rising local bond market and improved policy credibility. The pair also tackle inflation dynamics, fiscal risks, and the overall outlook for 2026, offering insights into regional economic stability and potential challenges ahead.

This week delves into the intriguing dynamics of U.S. economic growth and labor market signals. The hosts discuss how resilient business investments contrast with signs of a weakening workforce. They evaluate the implications of recent payroll data and mixed claims ahead of the Fed's decisions. Insights on Asian market upgrades and tech capital expenditures provide a global perspective. They also consider risks in consumer spending and the potential for unequal wealth impacts. All these elements paint a complex picture of economic trends moving forward.

This lively discussion tackles the 'tick-tock' dynamic of economic resilience versus labor market weakness. Speakers delve into the Fed's need for fresh data amid uncertainty and the global implications of job growth trends. They explore the tech-driven growth narrative, raising questions about sustainability and the concentration of improvements in certain sectors. The conversation also touches on China's economic challenges and the role of global fiscal policies in shaping prospects. Insights on the distribution of benefits from fiscal measures make for a thought-provoking dialogue.

Joseph Lupton, an economist at J.P. Morgan, shares keen insights on the precarious state of the U.S. labor market amidst a potential shutdown. He discusses the resilience of global growth signals, contrasting mixed U.S. labor indicators with stronger performances abroad. Delving into the implications of evolving tariff laws, Lupton highlights risks to trade policy and Fed independence. The conversation explores whether tech-driven investments will truly translate to job growth, all while navigating the murky waters of a potential recession.

Michael Hanson, Senior U.S. and Canada Economist, joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss crucial insights on U.S. inflation trends amid tariff pressures. They highlight the persistent 3% inflation globally and explore how tariffs are driving up U.S. prices, with estimates suggesting core CPI could rise by 1–1.5 percentage points. The conversation touches on the timing of inflation peaks, the contrasting inflation dynamics in the U.S. versus the rest of the world, and the challenges firms face in absorbing these costs. A thought-provoking analysis on policy implications for central banks unfolds.

Gbolahan (Bola) Taiwo, Chief Economist for Africa at JPMorgan, dives into the revitalization of African economies post-pandemic. He discusses key reforms across nations like Nigeria and Uganda, emphasizing how fiscal and monetary adjustments are paving the way for improved financial stability. Highlights include Nigeria's subsidy reforms, Angola's oil dependency, and Egypt's capital inflows fueled by strategic investments. The conversation sheds light on how these developments are reshaping investor confidence and strengthening economic resilience across the continent.